서울시 기후변화 종합 취약성 분석을 통한 재난별 재해관리 강화방안

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

As population and resource consumption are concentrated in cities due to the recent accelerated urbanization, deepening social problems such as fine dust, traffic congestion, water shortages, and disasters are a major threat to the sustainability of cities. In particular, in the 2018 National Consciousness Survey, Korea needs countermeasures to solve the increase in disaster-prone areas due to climate change and new environmental issues. In particular, climate change is occurring not only in Korea but also around the world, and accordingly, various countermeasures related to disasters and disasters are being promoted. These countermeasures can be seen in two aspects: the first is to mitigate the causes of climate change, and the second is to prepare in advance for the effects of climate change. The former aspect is that civil society and companies are actively participating, but the latter aspect is that the same damage does not occur in all classes or regions, but the damage caused by the interaction between physical and environmental differences may be different. Accordingly, it is necessary to prepare measures that reflect accurate predictions and regional characteristics in the preliminary preparation and follow-up process. Also, smart cities are being promoted worldwide to solve urban problems along with climate change. However, since the smart city currently being promoted is focused on the ICT field, the problem of insufficient value enhancement in various fields is mentioned. In order to respond to disasters caused by climate change comprehensively, it is necessary to establish an infrastructure that allows cities to take responsibility for climate change and respond efficiently. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to minimize domestic damage caused by abnormal weather through a comprehensive vulnerability analysis of climate change in Seoul and to suggest countermeasures that citizens can feel and utilize. In order to achieve the purpose of the study, a spatial vulnerability analysis was conducted focusing on 25 autonomous districts in Seoul on heat waves, floods, fine dust, and cold waves using the geographic information system GIS. The process of the study first constituted social, physical, environmental, and economic indicators for climate exposure, sensitivity, and adaptability sectors for spatial vulnerability analysis. Based on the results of the vulnerability analysis of autonomous districts, vulnerability was evaluated using the VRI calculation method to select autonomous districts with high vulnerability. Next, the characteristics of social, physical, environmental, and economic vulnerabilities by region were derived through the analysis of the administrative dong units of the selected autonomous districts. Based on this, disaster response measures related to domestic climate change were comprehensively summarized and then regional disaster response measures were presented, focusing on immediately after and after the disaster. Accordingly, vulnerable areas needed information and physical infrastructure for rapid evacuation of citizens, vulnerable areas in the sensitivity sector needed physical resources and post-economic support, and vulnerable areas in the adaptability sector suggested countermeasures considering the need to expand the post-recovery process. This study reflects the regional characteristics of each natural disaster, suggesting the direction of countermeasures to reduce manpower, time, and budget requirements, and the need for appropriate implementation of the response system at the time of the disaster. In addition, there is a limitation in that it was not possible to determine whether there was a high correlation with the actual damage of the region because it was analyzed with the processed data. Therefore, in future studies, it is necessary to identify the current status of disasters and identify correlations with indicators to suggest more practical and broader use of urban and architectural planning fields in consideration of selecting appropriate locations for disaster reinforcement infrastructure.

국문 초록 (Abstract)

최근 가속화 되고 있는 도심화로 인해 인구와 자원 소비가 도시에 집중되면서 미세먼지, 교통혼잡, 물부족, 재난 등 각종 사회문제의 심화는 도시의지속가능성에 큰 위협으로 작용하고 있다. 특히 2018년 국민 의식 조사에서 한국은 기후변화로 인한 재해 취약지역 증가와 새로운 환경이슈가 현안 문제로 조사되어 이를 해결하기 위한 대응 방안이 필요한 시점이다. 특히 기후변화는 한국뿐만 아니라 전 지구적으로 발생하고 있으며 이에 따라 재난과 재해의 관련된 다양한 대응 방안이 추진 중에 있다. 이러한 대응 방안은 두가지 측면으로 볼 수 있는데 첫 번째로는 기후변화 현상의 원인을 경감시키고자 하는 대응이며, 두 번째는 기후변화로 인한 영향에 사전적으로 대비하고자 하는 측면이다. 전자의 측면은 시민사회 및 기업들의 참여가 적극적으로 이루어지고 있지만, 후자의 측면은 모든 계층이나 지역에 동일한 피해가 발생하는 것이 아니라 물리적, 환경적 차이 간의 상호작용으로 인한 피해가 다르게 나타날 수 있다. 이에 따라 사전적 대비와 사후 대응 과정은 정확한 예측과 지역의 특성이 반영된 대책의 마련이 필요하다. 종합적으로 기후변화로 인한 재난에 대응하기 위해서는 도시가 기후변화에 책임을 지고 효율적으로 대응할 수 있는 인프라 구축이 필요하다.
본 연구의 목적은 서울시 기후변화 종합 취약성 분석을 통해 이상기후로 인한 국내 피해를 최소화하고 시민들이 체감하고 활용할 수 있는 대응 방안을 제시하는 것이다. 연구의 목적 달성을 위해 지리정보시스템인 GIS를 활용하여 폭염, 홍수, 미세먼지, 한파에 대하여 서울시 25개 자치구를 중심으로 공간적 취약성 분석을 시행하였다. 연구의 과정은 우선 공간적 취약성 분석을 위해 기후노출, 민감도, 적응능력 부문에 대하여 사회적, 물리적, 환경적, 경제적 지표를 구성하였다. 자치구의 취약성 분석 결과를 토대로 취약도가 높은 자치구를 선별하기 위해 VRI 산정방식등을 활용하여 취약도를 평가하였다.
다음으로 선별된 자치구의 행정동 단위 분석을 통해 지역별 사회적, 물리적, 환경적, 경제적인 취약성의 특성이 도출되었다. 이를 바탕으로 국내 기후변화와 관련된 재난 대응 방안을 종합하여 정리한 뒤 재난 발생 직후와 사후에 초점을 맞춰 지역별 재난 대응 방안을 제시하였다. 기후노출에 취약한 지역들은 시민들의 신속한 대피를 위한 정보와 물리적인 인프라 구축이 필요하였으며, 민감도 부문의 취약한 지역들은 물리적 자원과 사후 경제적 지원이 필요하였고, 적응능력 부문의 취약한 지역들은 사후 복구과정 물리적, 환경적, 인프라 확대의 필요성을 고려하여 대응 방안을 제시하였다.
본 연구는 자연재난별 지역적 특성을 반영하여, 인력, 시간, 예산 소요의 저감을 위한 대응 대책의 방향성과 재난 발생 당시와 사후 대응체계의 적절한 이행의 필요성을 제시하였다는데 의의가 있다. 또한 가공된 데이터와 함께 분석하였기 때문에 지역의 실질적인 피해와 상관성이 높은지를 파악하지 못했다는 한계가 있다.
향후 연구에서는 재해 현황을 파악하여 지표들과의 상관성 파악을 통해 재난 강화 인프라 구성에 적절한 입지 선정 등을 고려하여 더욱 실질적이고 도시, 건축계획 분야의 폭넓은 활용을 위한 방안을 제시할 필요가 있다.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• 목 차
• 그림 목차 ·························································································· ⅲ
• 표 목차 ······························································································ ⅴ
• 국문 요약 ·························································································· ⅵ
• 제 장 서 론 1
• 1.1 ····················································································· 01 연구의 배경 및 목적
• 1.1.1 ·············································································· 01 기후변화 대응 체제
• 1.1.2 ········································································ 02 연구의 필요성 및 목적
• 1.2 ······················································································ 06 연구의 범위 및 방법
• 1.2.1 ···························································································· 06 연구의 범위
• 1.2.2 ····························································································· 10 연구의 방법
• 제 장 이론 고찰 2
• 2.1 ····················································································· 12 기후변화와 재난관리
• 2.1.1 ························································································ 12 재난과 기후변화
• 2.1.2 ······································································· 14 기후변화 취약성 개념 정의
• 2.1.3 ········································································· 15 국내 기후 위기 대응 방안
• 2.1.4 ········································································· 24 스마트 재난관리 선행연구
• 2.3 ····································································· 26 재난별 취약성 평가 선행연구
• 2.3.1 ··································································· 26 폭염 취약성 평가 선행연구
• - ii -
• 2.3.2 ··································································· 28 홍수 취약성 평가 선행연구
• 2.3.3 ··························································· 31 미세먼지 취약성 평가 선행연구
• 2.3.4 ··································································· 33 한파 취약성 평가 선행연구
• 2.4 ········································································· 34 기후변화 취약성 분석 방법
• 2.4.1 ··································································· 34 취약성 분석 방법 선행연구
• 2.4.2 ······················································································ 38 취약도 산정 방안
• 제 장 취약성 평가 분석 3
• 3.1 ····································································· 40 기후변화 취약성 분석의 구조
• 3.1.1 ························································ 40 기후변화 취약성 분석 지표 구성
• 3.1.2 ······································································ 49 공간적 취약성 분석 방법
• 3.2 ····················································································· 52 공간적 취약성 분석
• 3.3 ················································································································· 65 소결
• 제 장 취약성 평가에 따른 지역적 대응 방안 4
• 4.1 ······································································· 66 지역적 대응 방안 고려요소
• 4.2 ····································· 69 지역적 특성을 고려한 부문별 재난 대응 체계
• 제 장 결 론 5 ········································································ 73
• 참고문헌 ···························································································· 79
• Abstract ······························································································84