특허인용분석을 통한 기술분야의 수명예측에 관한 연구 = A Study on Estimation of Technology Life Span Using Analysis of Patent Citation

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

A citation-based method of estimating the life span of a patented technology is proposed in this study. The suggested framework includes：(1) estimation of citation frequency of an individual patent within a technology group (2) calculation of a mutual citation frequency between citing patent and cited patents, (3) calculation of the period for cited patents from the year of registration to the year of being cited most recently and (4) description for technology group using descriptive statistics such as mean, median, mode, etc. The framework suggested in this study was applied to the US patent data between 1976 and 2004 for 5 communications areas.

참고문헌 (Reference)

1 "The Use of Patent Data for Technological Forecasting：The Diffusion of CNC-Technology in the Machine Tool Industry" 19 (19): 361-381, 1997

2 "The Technology Management Handbook," CRC Press LLC 1999.

3 "The Rate of Obsolescence of Technical Knowledge：a Note" xxvi (xxvi): 273-279, 1978

4 "The Rate of Obsolescence of Patents and the Private Rate of Return to Research Resources University of Chicago Press" 98-112, 1984

5 "The Rate of Depreciation of Technological Knowledge： Evidence from Patent Renewal Data" 8 : 59-82, 2001

6 "The Half-life of Periodical Literature：Apparent and Real Obsolescence" 26 (26): 46-54, 1970

7 "Technological paradigms and technological trajectories" 11 : 147-162, 1982

8 "Tech-Line??" 1999.

9 "Taking technology to market" 59 (59): 52-73, 1981

10 "Strategic Management of Technology and Innovation" illi (illi): 1988.

11 "Pattern of Industrial Innovation" 80 (80): 40-47, 1978

12 "Patent Citation Analysis：A Policy Analysis" 19 (19): 269-272, 1997

13 "Obsolescence and Changes in the Use of Literature with Time" 30 (30): 283-350, 1974b

14 "Flows of Knowledge from Universities and Federal Labs：Modeling the Flow of Patent Citations over Time and Across Institutional and Geographic Boundaries" 93 : 12671-12677, 1996

15 "Does physic literature obsolesce? A study of variation of citation frequency with time for individual journal articles in physics" 2 (2): 84-91, 1974a

16 "Development of a Technological S-Curve for Tire Cord Textiles" 37 (37): 275-291, 1990

17 "A Penny for Your Quotes Patent Citations and the Value of Innovations RAND Journal of Economics" 21 : 1 172-187, 1990

18 ""The Growth,Utility,and Obsolescence of Scientific Periodical Literature" 26 (26): 283-294, 1970

19 ""Technology,Productivity and Process Change" 7 : 379-396, 1975

20 ""R&D Capital,Rate of Return on R&D Investment and Spillover of R&D in Japanese Manufacturing Industries" lxxi (lxxi): 555-564, 1989