SIPRI yearbook . 2003 , Armaments, disarmament and international security

목차 (Table of Contents)

• CONTENTS
• Preface = xvii
• Glossary / Nenne Bodell ; Connie Wall = xix
• Introduction : Trends and challenges in international security / Alyson J. K. Bailes = 1
• Ⅰ. Introduction = 1
• Ⅱ. The early 21st Century environment = 1
• Ⅲ. Threat identification and threat hierarchies = 6
• Ⅳ. Other dimensions of global security = 19
• Ⅴ. Envoi : back to the United Nations = 21
• Essay 1. Terrorism and the law : past and present international approaches / Dr Gerry Simpson[Law Department, London School of Economics] = 23
• Essay 2. The non-military threat spectrum / Dr Herbert Braun[braun-consult, Switzerland]
• Figure 1. Overview of the scenario for Switzerland in 2000 = 36
• Figure 2. The interconnected 'energy crisis' scenario = 40
• Part Ⅰ. Security and conflicts, 2002
• 1. The Euro-Atlantic system and global security / Ian Anthony ; Alyson J.K. Bailes ; Shannon N. Kile ; Zdzislaw Lachowski = 47
• Ⅰ. Introduction = 47
• Ⅱ. The USA's policies and doctrines = 47
• Ⅲ. The US agenda in action and the repercussions = 52
• Ⅳ. Institutional developments : NATO and the EU = 61
• Ⅴ. Russian policy in a Euro-Atlantic and regional setting = 70
• Ⅵ. Conclusions = 78
• Appendix 1A. The African Union : the vision, programmes, policies and challenges / Jinmi Adisa = 79
• Ⅰ. Introduction = 79
• Ⅱ. Background = 80
• Ⅲ. Difficulties and challenges = 82
• Ⅳ. Conclusions = 85
• 2. Major armed conflicts / Sharon Wiharta ; Ian Anthony = 87
• Ⅰ. Introduction = 87
• Ⅱ. Conflicts that escalated in 2002 = 88
• Ⅲ. Conflicts on the way towards settlement in 2002 = 98
• Ⅳ. Conclusions = 107
• Appendix 2A. Patterns of major armed conflicts, 1990-2002 / Mikael Eriksson ; Margareta Sollenberg ; Peter Wallensteen = 109
• Ⅰ. Global patterns = 109
• Ⅱ. Regional patterns = 111
• Ⅲ. Changes in the table of conflicts for 2002 = 113
• Table 2A.1. Regional distribution, number and types of major armed conflicts, 1990-2002 = 110
• Table 2A.2. Regional distribution of locations with at least one major armed conflict, 1990-2002 = 110
• Table 2A.3. Table of conflict locations with at least one major armed conflict in 2002 = 115
• Figure 2A. Regional distribution and total number of major armed conflicts, 1990-2002 = 112
• Appendix 2B. Definitions, sources and methods for the conflict data / Mikael Eriksson ; Margareta Sollenberg ; Peter Wallensteen = 122
• Ⅰ. Definitions = 122
• Ⅱ. Sources = 123
• Ⅲ. Methods = 124
• 3. Multilateral peace missions / Sharon Wiharta = 127
• Ⅰ. Peace missions in 2002 = 127
• Ⅱ. Table of multilateral peace missions = 131
• Table 3. Multilateral peace missions, 2002 = 132
• Appendix 3A. The International Criminal Court / Sharon Wiharta = 153
• Ⅰ. Introduction : Background = 153
• Ⅱ. Structure and functions of the International Criminal Court Jurisdiction of the ICC = 157
• Ⅲ. Opposition to the ICC = 159
• Ⅳ. The EU position on the ICC = 163
• Ⅴ. Conclusions = 165
• Table 3A. Signatures and ratifications of the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court, by region, as of 30 April 2003 = 154
• 4. Afghanistan and the new dynamics of intervention : counter-terrorism and nation building / Andrew Cottey = 167
• Ⅰ. Introduction = 167
• Ⅱ. Background = 169
• Ⅲ. Defeating the Taliban and al-Qadea : Operation Enduring Freedom The military operation-Ethical and legal question raised by the military operation = 171
• Ⅳ. The Bonn process, ISAF and UNAMA = 182
• Ⅴ. Conclusions = 193
• Figure 4. Map of Afghanistan and neighbouring countries = 168
• 5. The nunclear confrontation in South Asia / M. V. Ramana ; Zia mian = 195
• Ⅰ. Introduction = 195
• Ⅱ. Overview : 1998-2002 : The Lahore Declaration - The Kargil war = 195
• Ⅲ. The crisis in 2002 : The changed international climate after 11 September 2001 = 198
• Ⅳ. Doctrines : Indian doctrines Pakistani doctrines = 202
• Ⅴ. Nuclear force developments : Indian nuclear force developments Pakistani nuclear force developments = 205
• Ⅵ. The role of nuclear weapons : Threats and nuclear brikmanship Perceptions of nuclear deterrence = 208
• Ⅶ. Conclusions = 212
• Figure 5. Map of South Asia = 196
• 6. The military and security dimensions of the European Union / Renata Dwan ; Zdzislaw Lachowski = 213
• Ⅰ. Introduction = 213
• Ⅱ. Crisis management capabilities : Military capabilities Civilian crisis management capabilities = 214
• Ⅲ. Crisis management development : Military-related structures and procedures Training for civilian crisis management Civil-military coordination = 223
• Ⅳ. EU crisis management missions : The FYROM mission The EU police operation in Bosnia and Herzegovina = 225
• Ⅴ. Pursuing the EU-NATO arrangement : EU access to NATO capabilities = 228
• Ⅵ. Towards an EU defence policy = 230
• Ⅶ. The ESDP and terrorism = 233
• Ⅷ. Russia and the ESDP = 234
• Ⅸ. Conclusions = 235
• 7. Security sector reform and NATO and EU enlargement / Marina Caparini = 237
• Ⅰ. Introduction = 237
• Ⅱ. Repercussions of the enlargements on security sector reform = 241
• Ⅲ. NATO enlargement : challenges of 'defence reform' = 242
• Ⅳ. EU enlargement : challenges of 'internal security reform' Specific challenges of the acquis = 251
• Ⅴ. New frontiers = 257
• Ⅵ. Conclusions = 259
• 8. The processes of budgeting for the military sector in Africa / Wuyi Omitoogun = 261
• Ⅰ. Introduction = 261
• Ⅱ. Review of policy debates : The process or governance approach = 263
• Ⅲ. An analytical framework for a process approach = 269
• Ⅳ. The challenges of using the process approach = 271
• Ⅴ. Implications for donor policies and practices = 276
• Ⅵ. Conclusions = 277
• Part Ⅱ. Military spending and armaments, 2002
• 9. The military sector in a changing context / Bj$$\ddot o$$rn Hagelin ; Elisabeth Sk$$\ddot o$$ns = 281
• Ⅰ. Introduction = 281
• Ⅱ. Military expenditure = 282
• Ⅲ. Arms production, transfers and control : Acquiring arms Arms markets = 295
• Ⅳ. Conclusions = 299
• 10. Military expenditure / Elisabeth sk$$\ddot o$$ns ; Wuyi Omitoogun ; Sam Perlo-Freeman ; Petter St$$\mathop a\limits^\circ $$lenheim = 301
• Ⅰ. Introduction = 301
• Ⅱ. World military expenditure = 302
• Ⅲ. The United States = 307
• Ⅳ. Europe : The European Union and NATO Europe The Russian Federation The Balkans = 313
• Ⅴ. Regional surveys : The Middle East Africa South Asia East Asia = 322
• Ⅵ. Conclusions = 333
• Table 10.1. World and regional military expenditure estimates, 1993-2002 = 302
• Table 10.2. World and regional defence burdens, 1993 and 1999-2001 = 303
• Table 10.3. The 15 major spender countries in 2002 = 305
• Table 10.4. Countries with the greatest changes in military expenditure, 2002 = 306
• Table 10.5. US military expenditure, FYs 1999-2004 = 308
• Table 10.6. The structure of the US budget for military R&D, FYs 2001-2004 = 310
• Table 10.7. Planned military expenditure and budget deficits, major West European spenders, 2002 onwards = 316
• Table 10.8. Official data on Chinese military expenditure, by function, 2000-2003 = 332
• Appendix 10A. Tables of military expenditure / Petter St$$\mathop a\limits^\circ $$lenheim ; Olawale Ismail ; Evamaria Loose-Weintraub ; Wuyi Omitoogun ; Sam Perlo-Freeman ; Elisabeth Sk $$\ddot o$$ns = 335
• Table 10A.1. Military expenditure by region, in constant US dollars, 1993-2002 = 335
• Table 10A.2. Military expenditure by region and country, in local currency, 1993-2002 = 339
• Table 10A.3. Military expenditure by region and country, in constant US dollars, 1993-2002 = 345
• Table 10A.4. Military expenditure by region and country, as percentage of gross domestic product, 1993-2001 = 351
• Appendix 10B. NATO military expenditure, by category / Petter st$$\mathop a\limits^\circ $$lenheim = 360
• Table 10B. NATO military expenditure on personnel and equipment, 1993-2002 = 360
• Appendix 10C. Sources and methods for military expenditure data / Elisabeth Sk$$\ddot O$$ns ; Petter St$$\mathop a\limits^\circ $$lenheim = 364
• Ⅰ. Introduction = 364
• Ⅱ. Purpose of the data = 364
• Ⅲ. Coverage of the data : Definition of military expenditure = 365
• Ⅳ. Methods : Estimation - Calculations = 365
• Ⅴ. Limitations of data = 367
• Ⅵ. Sources = 368
• Ⅶ. Reporting of military expenditure data to SIPRI and the UN = 369
• Table 10C. SIPRI and UN requests for military expenditure data, 2002 = 370
• 11. Arms production / Elisabeth Sk$$\ddot o$$ns ; Hannes Baumann = 373
• Ⅰ. Introduction = 373
• Ⅱ. Overview of trends : Future trends = 374
• Ⅲ. The concentration process in 2002 = 377
• Ⅳ. Defence industrial policies : The USA - Western Europe Russia = 388
• Ⅴ. Conclusions : Implications = 402
• Table 11.1. The value of mergers and acquisitions in the US aerospace and defence industry, 1992-2001 = 378
• Table 11.2. The top five US arms-producing companies, as of end-2002 = 380
• Table 11.3. Major international joint ventures and mergers among arms-producing companies in Western Europe, 2002 = 384
• Table 11.4. Number of prime contractors to the US Department of Defense, 1990 and 2000 = 390
• Table 11.5. Percentage of direct state share holdings in major French arms-producing companies, 2002 = 394
• Appendix 11A. Tables of national arms production / Hannes Baumann = 404
• Table 11A.1. Volume of arms production, export sales, and employment in the arms industry : France, Germany, The United Kingdom and the United States, 1991-2000 = 404
• Table 11A.2. Expenditure on military equipment and military R&D in Western Europe and the USA, 1991-2002 = 405
• Table 11A.3. Russia : output of the military-industrial complex, 1991-2002 = 406
• Table 11A.4. Russia : arms procurement and exports, 1996-2003 = 406
• Table 11A.5. Major acquisitions in the North American and West European arms industry, 2002 = 407
• 12. New developments in unmanned air vehicles and land-attack cruise missiles / Dennis M. Gormley = 409
• Ⅰ. Introduction = 409
• Ⅱ. The strategic context = 410
• Ⅲ. Trends in UAV and LACM developments = 416
• Ⅳ. Implications for non-proliferation policies : An emerging consensus? - Coping with enduring and new challenges = 426
• Ⅴ. Conclusions = 432
• Essay 3. The paradox of space weapons / John Pike, Director[GlobalSecurity. org, Washington, DC] = 433
• 13. International arms transfers / Bj$$\ddot o$$rn Hagelin ; Pieter D. Wezeman ; Siemon T. Wezeman ; Nicholas Chipperfield = 439
• Ⅰ. Introduction = 439
• Ⅱ. The suppliers and recipients : The major suppliers - The recipients = 439
• Ⅲ. The effectiveness of UN arms embargoes = 448
• Ⅳ. Competition and arms control : An arms race in South America? = 451
• Ⅴ. Anti-terrorism cooperation and arms transfers : Pakistan and India - Central Asia - Transfers to other countries = 455
• Ⅵ. Arms transfers reporting and transparency : International transparency - National transparency = 462
• Ⅶ. Conclusions = 464
• Table 13.1. Transfers of major conventional weapons from the 10 largest suppliers to the 38 largest recipients 1998-2002 = 442
• Figure 13.1. The trend in international transfers of major conventional weapons, 1988-2002 = 440
• Appendix 13A. The volume of transfers of major conventional weapons : by recipients and suppliers, 1998-2002 / Bj$$\ddot o$$rn Hagelin ; Pieter D. Wezeman ; Siemon T. Wezeman ; Nicholas Chipperfield = 466
• Table 13A.1. The recipients of major conventional weapons, 1998-2002 = 466
• Table 13A.2. The suppliers of major conventional weapons, 1998-2002 = 470
• Appendix 13B. The volume of transfers of major conventional weapons : by regions and other groups of recipients and suppliers, 1993-2002 / Bj$$\ddot o$$rn Hagelin ; Pieter D. Wezeman ; Siemon T. Wezeman ; Nicholas Chipperfield = 472
• Table 13B.1. Volume of imports of major conventional weapons, 1993-2002 = 472
• Table 13B.2. Volume of exports of major conventional weapons, 1993-2002 = 473
• Appendix 13C. Register of the transfers and licensed production of major conventional weapons, 2002 / Bj$$\ddot o$$rn Hagelin ; Pieter D. Wezeman ; Siemon T. Wezeman ; Nicholas Chipperfield = 476
• Table 13C.1. Register of transfers and licensed production of major conventional weapons, 2002, by recipients = 476
• Table 13C.2. Index of suppliers of major conventional weapons, 2002 = 533
• Appendix 13D. Sources and methods for arms transfers data / Bj$$\ddot o$$rn Hagelin ; Siemon T. Wezeman = 535
• Ⅰ. Seletion criteria and coverage : Selection criteria - Major conventional weapons : the coverage = 535
• Ⅱ. The SIPRI trend indicator = 536
• Ⅲ. Sources = 538
• Appendix 13E. The financing factor in arms sales : the role of official export credits and guarantees / Peter C. Evans = 539
• Ⅰ. Introduction = 539
• Ⅱ. Export financing competition in Poland = 541
• Ⅲ. Mixed motivations and concerns : Motivations - Concerns = 542
• Ⅳ. The Export-Import Bank of the United States Restrictions combined with exceptions = 548
• Ⅴ. Financing US military exports = 550
• Ⅵ. International trade finance disciplines = 554
• Ⅶ. Conclusions = 559
• Table 13E.1. US military-related export financing programmes, 1992-2001 = 544
• Table 13E.2. US Department of Defense military aid, loan and loan guarantee programmes, ranked by country totals, fiscal years 1992-2001 = 546
• Part Ⅲ. Non-proliferation, arms control and disarmament, 2002
• 14. Arms control in the new security environment / Ian Anthony = 563
• Ⅰ. Introduction = 563
• Ⅱ. The contribution of arms control to security building in 2002 = 564
• Ⅲ. The Global Partnership Against the Spread of Weapons and Materlals of Mass Destruction = 567
• Ⅳ. Arms control and terrorism : Non-proliferation and counter-terrorism in Russian-US relations = 571
• Ⅴ. Conclusions : combining different instruments to manage the challenge = 575
• 15. Nuclear arms control, non-proliferation and ballistic missile defence / Shannon N. Kile = 577
• Ⅰ. Introduction = 577
• Ⅱ. The US-North Korean Agreed Framework = 578
• Ⅲ. UN inspection in Iraq : IAEA activities in Iraq - Interim reports on status of UN inspections = 592
• Ⅳ. Iran and nuclear proliferation concerns : Suspected undeclared nuclear facilities = 596
• Ⅴ. International cooperation on nuclear safety and security : LAEA initiatives = 598
• Ⅵ. Russian-US nuclear arms control = 600
• Ⅶ. Developments in the US ballistic missile defence programme : Missile defence deployment decision = 605
• Ⅷ. Conclusions = 608
• Table 15.1. Status of North Korea's nuclear infrastructure, as of 31 December 2002 = 580
• Table 15.2. Summary of planned US missile defence capabilities, 2004-2005 = 608
• Appendix 15A. World nuclear forces / Hans M. Kristensen ; Shannon N. Kile = 610
• Ⅰ. Introduction = 610
• Ⅱ. US nuclear forces = 611
• Ⅲ. Russian unclear forees = 615
• Ⅳ. British nuclear forces = 617
• Ⅴ. French nuclear forces = 618
• Ⅵ. Chinese nuclear forces : Non-strategic weapons = 619
• Ⅶ. Indian nuclear forces : Ballistic and cruise missiles = 623
• Ⅷ. Pakistani nuclear forces : Ballistic missiles = 624
• Ⅸ. Israeli nuclear forces = 627
• Table 15A.1. World nuclear forces, by number of deployed warheads, January 2003 = 611
• Table 15A.2. US nuclear forces, January 2003 = 614
• Table 15A.3. Russian nuclear forces, January 2003 = 616
• Table 15A.4. British nuclear forces, January 2003 = 618
• Table 15A.5. French nuclear forces, January 2003 = 619
• Table 15A.6. Chinese nuclear forces, January 2003 = 620
• Table 15A.7. Indian nuclear forces, January 2003 = 622
• Table 15A.8. Pakistani nuclear forces, January 2003 = 626
• Table 15A.9. Israeli nuclear forces, January 2003 = 627
• Appendix 15B. Tables of operational military satellites / Ted Molczan ; John Pike = 628
• Table 15B.1. US operational military satellites, as of 31 December 2002 = 628
• Table 15B.2. Russian operational military satellites, as of 31 December 2002 = 633
• Table 15B.3. Rest of the world, operational military satellites, as of 31 December 2002 = 636
• Essay 4. Is deterrence dead? / Sir Michael Quinlan, GCB = 639
• 16. Chemical and biological weapon developments and arms control / John Hart ; Frida Kuhlau and Jacqueline Simon = 645
• Ⅰ. Introduction = 645
• Ⅱ. Biological weapon disarmament : The Fifth Review Conference of the States Parties to the BTWC = 646
• Ⅲ. Chemical weapon disarmament = 650
• Ⅳ. Use of chemical and biological agents for law enforcement and non-lethal weapon purposes = 659
• Ⅴ. Disarmament of Iraq = 666
• Ⅵ. Anti-terrorism developments : Anti-terrorism measures in the USA = 672
• Ⅶ. Proliferation allegations and past programmes = 675
• Ⅷ. Conclusions = 680
• Essay 5. Weapons of mass disruption? / Jean Pascal Zanders[Stockholm International Peace Research Institute] = 683
• 17. Conventional arms control in Europe / Zdzislaw Lachowski = 691
• Ⅰ. Introduction = 691
• Ⅱ. European arms control : The Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe = 693
• Ⅲ. NATO membership for the Baltic states and the CFE Treaty = 697
• Ⅳ. Sub-regional arms control in Europe = 700
• Ⅴ. European CSBMs = 701
• Ⅵ. Conclusions = 711
• Table 17.1. CFF and CFE-1 A ceilings and holdings in the Atlantic-to-the-Urals zone, as of 1 January 2003 = 692
• Table 17.2. Holdings of CFE-related equipment in the Baltic states and north-western Russia, as of January 2003 = 698
• Appendix 17A. Landmines and destruction efforts / Frida Blom = 712
• Ⅰ. Introduction = 712
• Ⅱ. The APM Convention = 712
• Ⅲ. Amended Protocol Ⅱ of the CCW Convention : Further regulations on anti-vehicle mines and explosive remnants of war = 717
• Ⅳ. International cooperation and assistance to mine action = 718
• Ⅴ. Efforts to engage non-state actors in a ban on anti-personnel mines NSA commitments to ban anti-personnel minesMonitoring commitmentsGrowing awareness in the international arena = 721
• Ⅵ. Conclusions = 724
• Table 17A.1. The status of the APM Convention, regional distribution as of January 2003 = 714
• Table 17A.2. Users, producers and transfer of anti-personnel mines, January 2001-May 2002 = 714
• Table 17A.3. Stockpile destruction deadlines for 2003-2007, as of January 2003 = 716
• Table 17A.4. Mine action donors and recipients, as of August 2002 = 720
• Table 17A.5. Non-state actors that use, are alleged users of, produce, stockpile or have mines on their territory and which are active in states parties, signatories or non-signatories to the APM Convention, as of August 2002 = 722
• 18. Supply-side measures / Ian Anthony = 727
• Ⅰ. Introduction = 727
• Ⅱ. Developments in the multilateral export control regimes = 729
• Ⅲ. The Australia Group = 736
• Ⅳ. The impact of European Union enlargement on supply-side measures = 740
• Ⅴ.Conclusions = 748
• Table 18.1. Membership of multilateral weapon and technology export control regimes, as of 1 January 2003 = 728
• Table 18.2. Participation by EU candidate countries in multilateral export control regimes, as of January 2003 = 742
• Appendix 18A. Non-proliferation of ballistic missiles : the 2002 Code of Conduct / Christer Ahlstr$$\ddot o$$m = 749
• Ⅰ. Introduction = 749
• Ⅱ. The Missile Technology Control Regime and the Draft ICOC = 749
• Ⅲ. EU coordination on the multilateralization of the draft ICOC = 751
• Ⅳ. From Paris to The Hagus : the multilateralization of the draft ICOC = 752
• Ⅴ. Assessment : PreamblePrinciples and general measuresTransparency measures = 754
• Ⅵ. Conclusions = 758
• Appendix 18B. The International Code of Conduct Against Ballistic Missile Proliferation = 760
• Annexes = 765
• Annex A. Arms control and disarmament agreements / Nenne Bodell ; Connie Wall = 765
• Annex B. Chronology 2002 / Nenne Bodell ; Olle Persson = 789
• About the authors = 801
• Abstracts = 808
• Erratum = 815
• Index = 816