영문 ; 기대형성에 관한 분석: 1985년 이후 일본통화정책을 대상으로 = English ; An analysis on expectation formation: Japanese Monetary Policy since 1985

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This paper had analyzed the Japanese economy in three divided terms in order to clarify the change of expectation formation. The empirical research applied the macro model, which was renewed in this work and a VAR model. The results are as follows: in the first term, economic agents formulated their expectation for the effect of monetary policy with the Keynesian hypothesis. They did not use the past variability in the price level as information for their anticipation. In the second term, economic agents started to use the expected price level as information for investment decisions, as the adaptive hypothesis means. This was because, the economic agents had learned from the first term that the expansive monetary policy increased the inflation rate and after that the bubbles bursted. In the last term, the empirical research showed that the rational expectation hypothesis was an appropriate way to explain the reality of economic. It means that the monetary policy loses its effect steadily and that the Japanese economic policy makers have to recognize this condition.