결합기법을 이용한 관광수요예측

목차 (Table of Contents)

• Abstract
• Ⅰ. 서론
• Ⅱ. 선행연구의 검토
• Ⅲ. 연구방법
• Ⅳ. 실증분석
• Ⅴ. 결론
• 참고문헌

참고문헌 (Reference)

1 모수원, "한국인 해외관광수요의 예측력 비교: 다변량 모형과 단일변량 모형" 한국관광.레저학회 14 (14): 11-24, 2002

2 곽대진, "우리나라 노년층의 해외여행 수요예측:인공신경망 모형을 이용하여" 한국관광학회 31 (31): 157-178, 2007

3 송근석, "단변량 시계열모형과 계량경제모형의 정확도 비교: 표본내 정확도와 표본후 정확도" 한국관광학회 31 (31): 35-53, 2007

4 이충기, "관광응용경제학" 일신사 2003

5 최영문, "관광수요예측모형의 예측정확성 향상에 관한 연구" 22 (22): 222-242, 1999

6 송근석, "관광수요 예측모형의 정확성 비교" 한국관광연구학회 20 (20): 351-369, 2006

7 Makridakis,S, "Why combining works?" 5 (5): 601-603, 1989

8 Wong, K. K .F, "Tourism forecasting: To combine or not to combine?" 28 (28): 1068-1078, 2007

9 Var, T, "Tourism forecasting: State-of-the-art techniques. In VNR's encyclopedia of hospitality and tourism" Van Nostrand Reinhold 1993

10 Song, H, "Tourism demand modelling and forecasting-a review of recent research" 29 (29): 203-220, 2008

11 Palm, F. C, "To combine or not to combine? Issues of combining forecasts" 11 (11): 687-701, 1992

12 Hibon, M, "To combine or not to combine: Selecting among forecasts and their combinations" 21 (21): 15-24, 2005

13 Diebold, R. X, "The use of prior information in forecast combination" 6 (6): 503-508, 1990

14 Bates, J. M, "The combination of forecasts" 20 (20): 451-468, 1969

15 Lawrence, M. J, "The accuracy of combining judgmental and statistical forecasts" 32 (32): 1521-1532, 1986

16 Koning, A. J, "The M3 competition: Statistical tests of the results" 21 (21): 397-409, 2005

17 Jose, V. R. R, "Simple robust averages of forecasts: Some empirical results" 24 (24): 163-169, 2008

18 Diebold,F.X, "Serial correlation and the combination of forecasts" 6 (6): 105-111, 1988

19 Dalrymple, D. J, "Sales forecasting practices: Results from a United States Survey" 3 (3): 379-391, 1987

20 Li, G, "Recent developments in econometric modeling and forecasting" 44 (44): 82-99, 2005

21 Gruber,A, "Purchase intend and purchase probability" 7 (7): 23-27, 1970

22 Hendry, D. F, "Pooling of forecasts" 7 (7): 1-31, 2004

23 Lawrence,M.L.,Goodwin,P.,O'Connor,M.,& Onkal,D, "Judgmental forecasting:A review of progress over the last 25 years.International Journal of" 22 (22): 493-518, 2006

24 Webby, R, "Judgmental and statistical time series forecasting: A review of the literature" 12 (12): 91-118, 1996

25 Bunn, D, "Interaction of judgemental and statistical forecasting methods: Issues and analysis" 37 (37): 501-518, 1991

26 Goodwin, P, "Improving judgmental time series forecasting: A review of the guidance provided by research" 9 (9): 147-161, 1993

27 Granger, C. W. J, "Improved methods of combining forecasts" 3 (3): 197-204, 1984

28 Gardner, Jr, "Forecasting trends in time series" 31 (31): 1237-1246, 1985

29 Chan,Y.M, "Forecasting tourism: A sine wave time series regression approach" 32 (32): 58-60, 1993

30 Chu,F.L, "Forecasting tourism: A combined approach" 19 (19): 515-520, 1998

31 Witt, S. F, "Forecasting tourism demand: A review of empirical research" 11 (11): 447-475, 1995

32 Chu, F. L, "Forecasting tourism demand: A cubic polynomial approach" 25 (25): 209-218, 2004

33 Chu, F. L, "Forecasting tourism arrivals: Nonlinear sine wave or ARIMA?" 36 (36): 79-84, 1998b

34 Witt,S.F.,Newbould,G.D.,& Watkins,A.J, "Forecasting domestic tourism demand: Application to Las Vegas arrivals data" 31 (31): 36-41, 1992

35 Fang,Y, "Forecasting combination and encompassing tests" 19 (19): 87-94, 2003

36 Armstrong,J.S, "Findings from evidence-based forecasting: Methods for reducing forecast error" 22 (22): 583-598, 2006

37 Gardner, Jr, "Exponential smoothing: the state of the art" 4 (4): 1-28, 1985

38 Oh, C.-O, "Evaluating time-series models to forecast the demand for tourism in Singapore: Comparing within-sample and post sample results" 43 (43): 404-413, 2005

39 Blattberg, R. C, "Database models and managerial intuition: 50% model + 50% manager" 36 (36): 887-899, 1990

40 Fritz, R. G, "Combining time-series and econometric forecast of tourism activity" 11 (11): 219-229, 1984

41 Reid,D.J, "Combining three estimates of gross domestic product" 35 (35): 431-444, 1968

42 Fischer, I, "Combining forecasts: What information do judges need to outperform the simple average?" 15 (15): 227-246, 1999

43 Clemen,R.T, "Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography" 5 (5): 559-583, 1989

44 Flores, B. E, "Combining forecast: Why, when and how" 8 (8): 2-5, 1989

45 Terui, N, "Combined forecasts from linear and nonlinear time series models" 18 (18): 421-438, 2002

46 이충기, "BIE Expo 방문객 수요예측: 계량기법과 질적기법의 적용" 한국관광.레저학회 19 (19): 263-281, 2007

47 Makridakis, S, "Averages of Forecasts: Some empirical results" 29 (29): 987-996, 1983

48 Witt, C. A, "Appraising an econometric forecasting model" 28 (28): 30-34, 1990

49 Tideswell, C, "An integrative approach to tourism forecasting: A glance in the rearview mirror" 40 (40): 162-171, 2001

50 Faulkner, B, "An integrative approach to tourism demand forecasting" 16 (16): 29-37, 1995

51 De Gooijer, J. G, "25 years of time series forecasting" 22 (22): 443-473, 2006