국내 일사량 추정을 위한 Angstrom-Prescott계수의 평가 = Assessment of the Angstrom-Prescott Coefficients for Estimation of Solar Radiation in Korea

국문 초록 (Abstract)

농업 생태계의 생산성을 예측하기 위한 모델의 필수 입력변수인 일사량은 비교적 적은 수의 기상관측소에서만 관측되고 있어, 이들 관측값을 대신하기 위해 일사량을 추정하는 모델들이 사용되고 있다. 특히, 간단한 계수를 사용하여 일조시간을 이용하는 Angstrom-Prescott (AP) 모델이 일사량 추정을 위해 가장 널리 쓰이고 있다. 국내에서 보편적으로 적용가능한 AP모델의 계수값을 탐색하기 위해 국내 20개 기상관측소의 30년간의 일단 위 관측자료를 입력자료로 사용하여 경험적으로 얻어진 계수와 Frere and Popov(1979)가 제시한 계수(AP_Frere)를 이용한 일사량을 추정하고, 이들의 신뢰도를 분석하였다. 또한, 전역최적화 과정을 통해 시공간적으로 신뢰도가 높은 일사량을 얻을 수 있는 AP계수의 범위를 탐색 하였다. 분석을 위해 월별, 년도별, 지역별로 추정값과 측정값 사이의 일치도를 계산하였다. AP_Frere를 사용한 결과 작물 생산성 예측을 위한 조건에서 일치도가 높게 나타났다. AP_Frere를 사용하였을 때 전역최적화를 통해 추정한 AP계수(AP_max)를 사용하였을 경우 보다 일치도가 낮았으나 경험적으로 얻어진 계수(AP_Choi)보다는 일치도가 높은 일사량 추정이 가능하였다. 전역최적화를 통해 일사량 추정치의 신뢰도를 분석한 결과, 신뢰도가 높은 일사량을 얻을 수 있는 AP계수의 범위는 년도별로는 좁게 분포하였으나 월별, 지역별로는 넓게 분포하였다. 그 중에서도 변이가 작은 범위는 지역별 일치도가 월별 일치도보다 넓게 분포하였다. AP_Frere는 각각의 경우에 대해 일치도가 높고 변이가 작은 범위에 속해 국내 조건에서 AP_Frere를 적용할 경우, 신뢰도 높은 일사량 추정치를 얻을 수 있을 것으로 예상되었다.

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Models to estimate solar radiation have been used because solar radiation is measured at a smaller number of weather stations than other variables including temperature and rainfall. For example, solar radiation has been estimated using the Angstrom-Prescott (AP) model that depends on two coefficients obtained empirically at a specific site (AP_Choi) or for a climate zone (AP_Frere). The objective of this study was to identify the coefficients of the AP model for reliable estimation of solar radiation under a wide range of spatial and temporal conditions. A global optimization was performed for a range of AP coefficients to identify the values of AP_max that resulted in the greatest degree of agreement at each of 20 sites for a given month during 30 years. The degree of agreement was assessed using the value of Concordance Correlation Coefficient (CCC). When AP_Frere was used to estimate solar radiation, the values of CCC were relatively high for conditions under which crop growth simulation would be performed, e.g., at rural sites during summer. The statistics for AP_Frere were greater than those for AP_Choi although AP_Frere had the smaller statistics than AP_max did. The variation of CCC values was small over a wide range of AP coefficients when those statistics were summarized by site. AP_Frere was included in each range of AP coefficients that resulted in reasonable accuracy of solar radiation estimates by site, year, and month. These results suggested that AP_Frere would be useful to provide estimates of solar radiation as an input to crop models in Korea. Further studies would be merited to examine feasibility of using AP_Frere to obtain gridded estimates of solar radiation at a high spatial resolution under a complex terrain in Korea.

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