관광 미래예측기법에 관한 이론적 고찰 : 시스템 다이나믹스를 중심으로 = A Theoretical Study about Tourism Future Forecasting with System-Dynamics Method

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

During the formulating and implementing process of a decision, the decision-maker of tourism sets an assumption about the future. But, existing assumptions take into account the consequences of the analysis of various phenomenons about the future, without consideration to Tourism policy about the future. This is a limitation.
Therefore, there is a need for a methodology that shows direction to anticipate and realize the future phenomenon of tourism, which are methods to understand the internal factors of the tourism system, and methods to analyze the interactions of the component units within the tourism system and its effects on society and the economy, and methods to calculate growth potential.
One of the methods to analyze change patterns in behavior of the interactions of the component units is by simulation, and one of the most frequently used simulation is System Dynamics.
The System Dynamics simulation is a mode to overcome single-track thinking, by utilizing Systemic thinking to analyze the social phenomenon and it's interactions between it's component units, we can understand the phenomenon of the future more easily.
Therefore, the purpose of this study is to theoretically analyze the System Dynamics method, which is based on System Thinking, to overcome the deficiences of the existing system on future analysis.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• Ⅰ. 서론
• 1. 문제의 제기 및 연구목적
• 2. 연구방법
• Ⅱ. 이론적 고찰
• 1. 시스템과 관광시스템의 개념
• 2. 시스템 다이나믹스의 연구배경과 과정
• 3. 인과지도
• 4. 시스템 다이나믹스의 모형화
• Ⅲ. 시스템 다이나믹스의 적용사례
• 1. 선행연구
• 2. 시스템 다이나믹스의 이론적 연계
• Ⅳ. 결론
• <참고문헌>