부과방식(PAYG) 공적연금 도입이 출산율에 미치는 영향 = A Study on the Effect of Implementing the PAYG Public Pension Schemes upon the Fertility Rate

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The paper employs an overlapping generation model to identify the effects of implementing the PAYG public pension scheme upon the fertility rate and lifetime utility. We find out that the fertility rate largely depends upon the income effect which comes from the difference between the implicit return of PAYG and the return of personal saving. This suggests that Aaron’s theorem could be widely applicable to the economy model with endogenous fertility rate and various coefficients of relative risk aversion through a utility function. As a result, implementing PAYG under the dynamically efficient economy leads to the negative effects which decrease fertility rates and individual utilities simultaneously.

국문 초록 (Abstract)

우리는 중첩세대모형을 통하여 PAYG 공적연금제도의 도입이 개인의 출산율 그리고 생애효용에 주는 영향은 연금수익률과 저축수익률의 차이에 따른 소득 효과에 좌우된다는 것을 밝힐 수 있었다. 이는 Aaron의 정리를, 출산율을 내생변수로 한 모형에서 다양한 위험회피계수에 확대 적용할 수 있다는 것을 보여준 것이다. 결론적으로 동적으로 효율적인 경제에서 PAYG 공적연금 도입은 출산율뿐만 아니라 개인 생애효용까지 동시에 감소시키는 부정적 효과를 초래할 수 있다.

참고문헌 (Reference)

1 양재환 ; 여윤경 ; 김혜경, "기대효용함수를 활용한 국민연금의 소득재분배 효과 분석" 한국보험학회 (86) : 259-295, 2010

2 성주호 ; 최기홍, "공적연금재원조달에 관한거시경제학적 접근법과계리학적 접근법의 비교 연구- 가입자 복리 선호 관점 -" 보험연구원 14 (14): 147-167, 2003

3 Aaron, Henry, "The social Insurance Paradox" 32 (32): 1966

4 Miyazaki, K., "The effects of the raising-the-official-pension-age policy in an overlapping generations economy" 123 : 329-332, 2014

5 Ehrlich, Isaac, "Social security, the family and economic growth" 36 (36): 390-409, 1998

6 Zhang Junsen, "Social security, intergenerational transfers, and endogenous growth" 31 : 1225-1541, 1998

7 Hohm, Charles F., "Social security and fertility : An international perspective" 12 (12): 629-644, 1975

8 Groezen, Bas van, "Social security and endogenous fertility: pensions and child allowances as Siamese twins" 87 : 233-251, 2003

9 Cipriani G. P., "Pension policies in a model with endogenous fertility" 19 : 109-125, 2020

10 Wigger, B. U, "Pay-as-you-go financed public pensions in a model of endogenous growth and fertility" 12 (12): 625-640, 1999

11 Groezen, Bas van, "Growing old and staying young: population policy in an ageing closed economy" 21 : 573-588, 2008

12 Boldrin, Michele B., "Fertility and social security" 81 (81): 261-299, 2015

13 Abel, Andrew B., "Assessing dynamic efficiency:Theory and evidence" 56 : 1-20, 1989

14 Becker, Gary S, "A reformulation of the economic theory of fertility" NBER 1-46, 1986