This paper estimates the transaction volume of housing market and forecasts the acquisition tax revenue for the case of Seoul in Korea. We apply to the fixed-effect panel model the monthly housing transaction data of the fifteen local governments from...
This paper estimates the transaction volume of housing market and forecasts the acquisition tax revenue for the case of Seoul in Korea. We apply to the fixed-effect panel model the monthly housing transaction data of the fifteen local governments from January 2006 to September 2015. It forecasts that the housing transaction volume and the tax revenue will be cut by 5.7% in 2016 compared to 2015 if the related policy will remain as the same, and by 16.8% if the authority reinforces the regulation of the housing market.