한국의 기후변화에 따른 산림 생태계의 취약성 평가 연구 = (A)study on the vulnerability of forest ecosystems to climate change in Korea

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

As the high confidence that climate change will lead change in biological systems, vulnerability which is the degree to ecosystems are susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse impacts(IPCC, 2008) has been required to be assessed. Among the method assessing the vulnerability of ecosystem, model is considered the effective way to reflect its high complexity. In this study CEVSA(Carbon Exchange between vegetation, soil, and atmosphere), process-based ecosystem model and dynamic vegetation model, is used. Vulnerability is defined as relation with sensitivity and adaptation. A quantitative approach of CEVSA model is to assess the vulnerability of ecosystems from two aspects: vegetation changes and ecosystem functional changes, as forest ecosystem is predicted to affect on its structure and functions responding to climate change. Sensitivity and adaptation in vegetation distribution to climate are individually indicated by change times and direction. Annual variability and its changing trend represent the sensitivity and adaptation of ecosystem function to climate. The Vulnerability of Korean ecosystem under contemporary(1977~2006) and future (2007~2100) climate is assessed with given analysis of CEVSA model in vegetation distribution and ecosystem functions. As result under future climatic conditions, extreme high vulnerable area in potential vegetation distribution show tendency moving toward north and the vulnerability of ecosystem function is estimated to be generally in extreme low class (about 77%) spreading on the whole country, whereas the extreme high vulnerable area is shown sporadically in central and south coast of Korea. As the result of integrating them, the vulnerability of Korean ecosystem under future climate is estimated to be low, but the percent of over high vulnerable area will increase about 0.3% to 12%. The CEVSA model has limitations that it cannot completely describe the Korean forest, because the parameters of CEVSA model is designed for Chinese forest. Also it can be revealed the problem of spatial resolution of future climatic data and the number of scenario used for simulating. Nevertheless this can be said to valuable study in terms of applying the process-based model to Korean forest and collecting and constructing data for future study. Futhermore monitoring of the influence by climate change and developing of adaptive policy to climate change to develop study related to climate change is suggested.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• Ⅰ. Introduction 1
• Ⅱ. Methods and Data 6
• 1. CEVSA model 6
• 2. Assessment of vulnerability 13
• 3. Data 16
• Ⅲ. Results and discussions 21
• 1. Potential vegetation distribution 21
• 2. Vulnerability of forest distribution 26
• 3. Vulnerability of forest Ecosystem functions 29
• 4. Vulnerability of forest Ecosystem 31
• Ⅳ. Conclusions 34
• Ⅴ. Reference 38
• Ⅵ. Annex 46