Prediction of population dynamics of Myzus persicae, Heliothis assulta and Frankliniella occidentalis as climate changes: modeling approach

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Myzus persicae, Heliothis assulta and Frankliniella occidentalis are the most severe pests of pepper in Korea. IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) reported that the temperature would increase 7℃ at the end of this century. According to the elevated temperature, the pest population will be grow dramatically. We need to predict the pest-population size to maintain good crop productivity. DYMEX and CLIMEX are commercial software developed by CSIRO in Australia, to build and simulate population dynamics models. Using this software, we predicted population dynamics of M. persicae, H. assulta and F. occidentalis applying past climate data (1970) and future climate data (2070) which were generated by National Institute of Meteorological Research (NIMR). The population growth rates of M. persicae, H. assulta and F. occidentalis were 6300, 16 and 950 times, respectively, with 5 degree elevation. Therefore pest management should be conducted intensively in the future.