우리나라 강우자료의 지역빈도해석 적용성 연구(Ⅱ) : 모의실험 및 적합기법 선정 = Application of Regional Rainfall Frequency Analysis in South Korea(Ⅱ) : Monte Carlo Simulation and Determination of Appropriate Method

국문 초록 (Abstract)

본 연구에서는 ‘우리나라 강우자료의 지역빈도해석 적용성 연구(Ⅰ) : 확률강우량의 산정 ’에서 구한 강우량 자료들의 L-모멘트 값들을 이용해 각 지점의 자료에 대하여 Monte Carlo 모의실험을 수행하여 각 기법별 수행능력을 비교ㆍ평가하였다. 이를 위해 지점의 지료연수, L-모멘트 변동계수(L-CV), L-모멘트 왜곡도계수(L-skewness) 값들에 변화를 주면서 자료를 발생 시킨 후, 각 기법별로 산정된 상대평균제곱근오차를 비교함으로써, 조건별로 지역형상추정법과 지수홍수법의 우수성을 비교 하였다. 모의실험 결과, L-CV의 지역평균이 0.25이하이고 L-CV의 범위가 0.15이상일 때 지역형상추정법이 지수홍수법보다 우수한 것으로 나타났으며, 우리나라의 경우와 같이 자료기간이 짧은 경우에는 지수홍수법이 우수한 것으로 나타났다.

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

In this study, Monte Carlo simulation has been performed to compare the performance of regional shape estimation and index flood methods using L-moments of rainfall data from the companion paper of' Application of Regional Frequency Analysis in South Korea(Ⅰ): Quantile Estimation'. For this purpose, the data were generated for various sample sizes, L-moment coefficient of variation (L-CV), L-moment skewness coefficients (L-skewness), and then the relative root mean square errors of rainfall quantiles were estimated. As the results of simulations, regional shape estimation method is better than index flood method when the regional L-CV is less than 0.25 and the range of at-site L-CV is bigger than 0.15. And index flood method is preferable to regional shape estimation method in Korea, in which sample sizes are relatively small.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• Abstract
• 요지
• 1. 서론
• 2. Monte Carlo 모의실험
• 3. 적용
• 4. 결론
• 참고문헌

참고문헌 (Reference)

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