Analyzing the Causal Relationship between Exports, Imports, and Economic Growth : The Case of Sub-Saharan African Countries

국문 초록 (Abstract)

본 연구는 1961년부터 2010년까지 사하라 이남 아프리카 8개 국가를 대상으로 무역과 경제성장의 관계를 벡터오차수정모형(Vector Error Correction Model)과 그랜저 인과관계(Granger Causality) 검정을 이용해 분석하였다. 실증분석 결과 대상 국가들은 수출입과 경제성장간에 쌍방향 또는 단방향의 인과관계를 보여주었다. 특히 콩고, 가나, 남아프리카공화국과 잠비아에서는 수출입과 경제성장간에 장기 인과관계가 존재했다. 그랜저 인과관계 검정에서는 콩고, 에티오피아, 가나와 세네갈에서 수출주도형 경제성장 가설이 입증된 반면, 보츠와나, 가나, 케냐, 세네갈과 잠비아에서는 수입주도형 경제성장 가설이 입증되었다. 또한 일반충격반응(Generalized Impulse Response) 함수를 이용한 시뮬레이션에서는 수출입을 통한 거시경제 충격이 에티오피아, 케냐와 남아프리카공화국의 국내총생산을 증가시키고 있음을 보여주었다. 결론적으로 수출뿐만 아니라 수입 또한 사하라 이남 아프리카 국가들의 경제성장에 유의미한 역할을 하고 있음을 확인했다.

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This study examines the link between trade and economic growth in eight Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries, using data for the 1961–2010 period. We analyze the corresponding causal relationship using the augmented Cobb–Douglas production function and performing the Granger causality test based on the vector error correction model. The empirical results indicate that this causal relationship differs across the countries. Specifically, a long-run causal relationship between exports, imports, and economic growth is apparent in the case of Congo, Ghana, South Africa, and Zambia. In addition, the Granger causality test results for Congo, Ethiopia, Ghana, and Senegal indicate support for the export-led growth hypothesis, while those for Botswana, Ghana, Kenya, Senegal, and Zambia, for the import-led growth hypothesis. Moreover, the simulation result using the generalized impulse response function demonstrates that the GDP positively responds to a sudden favorable macroeconomic shock through exports and imports in Ethiopia, Kenya, and South Africa. Overall, these results imply that not only exports, but also imports could play a significant role in stimulating economic growth in SSA countries.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• Abstract
• Ⅰ. Introduction
• Ⅱ. Trade and Economic Growth in SSA Countries
• Ⅲ. Data and Methodology
• 3.1 Data Type and Sources
• 3.2 Methods of Empirical Analysis
• Ⅳ. Empirical Analysis
• 4.1. Unit Root Test and Johansen Co-integration Test
• 4.2 Vector Error Correction(VEC) Model Estimates
• 4.3 Granger Causality Test Based on the VEC Model
• 4.4 Model Diagnostics: Autocorrelation and Heteroskedasticity
• Ⅴ. Conclusions
• References
• 논문초록

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