도시계획 적용을 위한 도시홍수 취약성 및 리스크 평가

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This study conducted two flood assessments and compared their methods, procedures, and outcomes for applying to urban planning: a flood vulnerability assessment in accordance with the Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment adopted by the government and a probabilistic risk assessment stressed by IPCC. The flood vulnerability assessment employed the indicator method based on the manual and guidelines. The probabilistic risk was defined as a product of the probability of occurrence and its effect. It used Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation, which is effective in random number generation and machine learning based on the Bayesian concept. The results of two evaluations focused on Busan show that while spatial distributions of risk areas are quite similar, risk area calculated by flood vulnerability assessment is a little larger than risk assessment due to different units of analysis, used data, and assessment methodology. Risk assessment provides more accurate results, but assessment method is complicated, while vulnerability assessment is easy to use, results cannot be quantitatively validated. Therefore, the combination of vulnerability and risk assessment is considered meaningful as it could improve existing flood assessments and contribute to decision making to establish safer cities.

참고문헌 (Reference)

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