‘저온호황’의 출현과 아베노믹스의 방향전환 = The emergence of ‘a weak boom’ and turning point of Abenomics

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Five years have passed since the three arrows of Abenomics were released as a: bold monetary policy, flexible fiscal policy and growth strategy to encourage private investment. The Japanese economy has gradually started to recover and is finally beginning to see signs of recovering from long-term stagnation.
However, the depreciation of the yen and the rise in stock prices are not only affected by Abenomics, but is also sensitive to the international situation. Decrease in the unemployment rate is largely due to changes in population structure rather than Abenomics. Besides, the declining population reduces the potential growth rate. Wages do not rise in spite of labor shortage and private consumption does not increase at all. As a result, Abenomics has brought about a weak boom.
Focusing on the problem of an aggregate demand shortage, the first Abenomics that tried to induce reflation through quantitative easing revealed certain limitations. The second stage of Abenomics that appeared in 2016 was summarized as a growth strategy centered on work style reform to solve the problem of aggregate supply constraint. After all, the success of Abenomics in the future depends on whether the Japanese labor reform practice persists.

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