비현실적 낙관주의에서 지각된 통제성과 사건 빈도의 상호작용효과: 직접 대 간접 측정방법 = Interaction Effect of Perceived Controllability and Event Frequency on Unrealistic Optimism: Direct versus Indirect Measures

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Unrealistic optimism refers to people's tendency to consistently believe that risky events are less likely to happen to themselves than to others. Two experimental studies investigated the interaction between perceived controllability and event frequency of this unrealistic optimism by measuring it directly and indirectly using questionnaires. When using the direct method, unrealistic optimism was greater when an event frequency was low rather than high, and the interaction between perceived controllability and event frequency was not significant, which is consistent with the egocentrism account. On the other hand, when using the indirect method, the event frequency interacted with the perceived controllability. For uncontrollable events, the event frequency effect disappeared as the egocentrism account predicted, but for controllable events an opposite event frequency effect was found, which was that a greater rate of unrealistic optimism occurred when an event absolute frequency was high rather than low. This opposite event frequency effect occurred because the event frequency was considered lower for the subjects’ own likelihood estimates than others. Therefore, a kind of overconfidence of the subjects’ own control over risky events seems to produce the opposite event frequency effect on the unrealistic optimism when measuring with the indirect method. The importance of the opposite event frequency effect in risk perception and research of unrealistic optimism was discussed.

국문 초록 (Abstract)

위험에 대하여 다른 사람들에 비해 자신의 발생가능성을 낮게 지각하는 현상이 비현실적 낙관주의이다. 본 연구는 설문지를 사용하여 직접과 간접방법으로 측정한 비현실적 낙관주의에서 지각된 통제성과 사건 빈도 간의 상호작용효과를 검증하는 두 개의 실험을 수행하였다. 직접방법에서는 빈도가 높은 사건보다 낮은 사건에서 비현실적 낙관주의가 증가하는 빈도 효과가 발생하고, 지각된 통제성과 사건 빈도 간의 상호작용효과는 유의미하지 않아서 자기중심성 가설이 지지되었다. 간접방법의 경우, 낮은 통제성 사건에서는 자기중심성 가설의 예측대로 빈도 효과가 사라졌지만, 높은 통제성 사건에서는 낮은 빈도 사건보다 높은 빈도 사건에서 비현실적 낙관주의가 증가하는 역빈도 효과가 발견되었다. 이 역빈도 효과는 자신의 발생가능성은 사건 빈도에 상관없이 일정하게 낮게 평가하면서, 다른 사람의 발생가능성은 낮은 빈도에서는 낮게, 높은 빈도에서는 높게 평가하는 것 때문에 발생하고 있었다. 따라서 통제할 수 있다고 지각되는 사건에서 자신의 통제능력에 대한 과확신이 간접방법의 비현실적 낙관주의에서 역빈도 효과를 일으킨다고 할 수 있다. 위험 지각과 비현실적 낙관주의 연구에서 역빈도 효과의 의미에 대해 논의하였다.

참고문헌 (Reference)

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