강성 권력과 연성 권력 측면에서 바라본 사우디아라비아와 이란의 주도권 경쟁 = Competition for Initiatives in Hard Power and Soft Power : The Case of Saudi Arabia and Iran

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This study analyzes the competition between Saudi Arabia and Iran by applying the framework of categorization between hard power and soft power. The study begins with previous literature related to hard power and soft power. Then, it explains military, economic, and geopolitical competitions as the competition for hard power, while sectarian and cultural competitions as the one for soft power. Though the two categories are classified as competitions for hard power and soft power, each competition is closely related. In other words, a competition for securing hard power is not only connected to each other, but also is affecting other competitions for soft power. The same connections are simultaneously applied to a competition for soft power. While the competitions between Saudi Arabia and Iran are now highly intensified, the relationship between the two countries is not expected to get recovered in the near future. In Saudi Arabia, internal and external threats to its monarchy are increasing. Moreover, Iran can not step back in competing for region initiatives and maintaining international relations because of the re-imposed sanctions by the United States. As a result, the geopolitical risks in the region are highly increased and the conflicts between the two countries are likely to become more intense. Nevertheless, they have a room for reconciliation if Iran acknowledges the Saudi Arabia’s regime, and if Saudi Arabia supports Iran in its international activities and cooperation. As the most important value in international relations is real interests of the participating countries, Saudi Arabia and Iran will be able to form a cooperative relationship by initiating dialogues on common issues and seeking to realize the mutual benefits that the two countries can share.

국문 초록 (Abstract)

본고는 권력(Power)을 두 가지 범주로 바라보는, 강성 권력(Hard power)과 연성 권력(Soft power) 구분이라는 틀을 적용하여 사우디아라비아와 이란 간 경쟁을 분석한다. 이를 위해 강성 권력과 연성 권력에 대한기존 연구와 이론을 설명한 뒤, 강성 권력 획득을 위한 노력으로서 군사, 경제, 지정학적 주도권 다툼을, 그리고 연성 권력 획득의 일환으로서 종파적 경쟁과 문화적 경쟁을 설명한다.
권력 확보를 위한 경쟁을 두 범주로 분류하였으나, 각 경쟁들은 서로 밀접하게 연결되어 있다. 즉 강성 권력 확보를 위한 각각의 경쟁들은 서로 연결되어 있을 뿐만 아니라, 연성 권력 확보를 위한 경쟁들과도 영향을 주고받으면서 진행되고 있다는 것이고, 동시에 연성 권력 확보를 위한 각 경쟁들 역시 그러하다는 것이다.
현재 사우디아라비아와 이란 간 대립과 경쟁은 상당히 격화되어 있는 상황이지만, 근 시일 내에 그 관계가 회복되기는 어려울 것으로 예상된다. 사우디아라비아의 경우 왕정 체제 유지에 대한 대내외적 위협이 확대되고 있는 상황이고, 이란 역시 미국에 의한 제재 재부과 결정 이후, 역내 주도권경쟁과 대외 관계 구축에 있어 물러설 수 없는 상황에 처해 있다. 이로 인해 지정학적 위험은 상당히 증가되어 있는 상황이며, 양국 간 경쟁과 충돌은 앞으로도 더욱 격화될 수 있는 가능성을 내포하고 있다.
그럼에도 불구하고, 이란은 사우디의 체제를 인정하고, 사우디는 같은이슬람교라는 공통점으로서 이란의 국제 활동 및 협력 추진을 지원함으로써, 양국 간 관계 회복이 시작될 수 있는 여지가 있다. 국제 관계에서 가장중요한 가치는 당사국의 실질적 이익임을 생각해볼 때, 이웃 국가로서 공통된 사안에 대해 대화를 재개하고 양국이 공유할 수 있는 이익을 찾아 이의 실현을 모색함으로써, 새로운 협력 관계를 형성해갈 수 있을 것이다.

참고문헌 (Reference)

1 이상환, "중남미의 반부패와 인권 현황에 대한 연성권력 측면의 비교분석" 한국정치외교사학회 30 (30): 203-225, 2009

2 곽덕환, "중국 연성권력의 구조와 실체" 국가안보전략연구원 9 (9): 55-78, 2009

3 유달승, "이란의 문화외교 연구：이란과 시리아의 사례 연구" 국가안보전략연구원 9 (9): 123-143, 2009

4 유흥태, "이란-사우디아라비아 관계: 결정요인과 전개방향" 극동문제연구소 32 (32): 137-162, 2016

5 신상윤, "이란 석유-가스 산업: 법제와 개발 전략을 중심으로" 국제지역연구센터 20 (20): 103-136, 2016

6 홍미정, "걸프 아랍 국가들과 이란 이슬람공화국 관계" 중동연구소 36 (36): 1-28, 2017

7 최영철, "‘아랍의 봄’과 사우디아라비아의 정치개혁" 한국이슬람학회 25 (25): 61-97, 2015

8 Hyde-Price, A, "‘Normative’power Europe: a realist critique" 13 (13): 217-234, 2006

9 Friedman U, "What’s the Saudi-Iran Feud Really About?"

10 CNBC, "US-Saudi Arabia Seal Weapons Deal Worth Nearly $110 Billion Immediately, $350 Billion Over 10 Years"

11 Fukuyama, F, "US Must Balance Hard Power With Soft Power" 21 (21): 29-31, 2004

12 Quinn, A, "The art of declining politely: Obama’s prudent presidency and the waning of American power" 87 (87): 803-824, 2011

13 Lundestad, G, "The Rise and Decline of the American Empire: Power and Its Limits in Comparative Perspective" Oxford University Press 2012

14 IISS, "The Military Balance"

15 Rabi, U, "The Geopolitics of Sectarianism in the Persian Gulf" 12 (12): 46-65, 2018

16 Nye, J. S, "The Future of American Power: Dominance and Decline in Perspective" 89 (89): 2-12, 2010

17 Wang, H, "The Conception of Soft Power and its Policy Implications: A Comparative Study of China and Taiwan" 17 (17): 425-447, 2008

18 Caffrey, K, "The Beijing Olympics: Promoting China: Soft and hard power in global politics" Routledge 2013

19 "Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution Homepage"

20 "Statistical Review of World Energy"

21 Cordesman, A, "Stability and Instability in the Gulf Region 2016" Center for Strategic and International Studies 2016

22 Gill, B, "Sources and Limits of Chinese ‘Soft Power’" 48 (48): 17-36, 2006

23 Oğuzlu, T, "Soft power in Turkish foreign policy" 61 (61): 81-97, 2007

24 Das, A. K, "Soft and hard power in India’s strategy toward Southeast Asia" 12 (12): 165-185, 2013

25 Nye, J. S, "Soft Power and American Foreign Policy" 119 (119): 255-270, 2004

26 Nye, J. S, "Soft Power" 80 : 153-171, 1990

27 Reuter, "Shi’ite cleric among 47 executed in Saudi Arabia"

28 Ostavar, A, "Sectarian Dilemma in Iranian Foreign Policy" Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Research

29 Wehrey, F, "Saudi-Iranian Relations since the Fall of Saddam: Rivalry, Cooperation, and Implications for US Policy" Rand Corporation Research 2009

30 Keynoush, B, "Saudi Arabia and Iran: Friends or Foes?" Palgrave Macmillan 2016

31 "SIPRI Homepage"

32 Wang, Y, "Public Diplomacy and the Rise of Chinese Soft Power" 616 (616): 257-273, 2008

33 Hawzah Homepage, "Political Culture in the Eyes of Supreme Leader"

34 Reuter, "Oil up on OPEC output cuts, worries about Iran sanctions"

35 Heng, Y. K, "Mirror, Mirror on the Wall, Who is the Softest of Them All? Evaluating Japanese and Chinese Strategies in the ‘Soft’ Power Competition Era" 10 (10): 275-304, 2010

36 Cordesman, A, "Iran’s Rocket and Missile Forces and Strategic Options" Center for Strategic and International Studies Research 2014

37 Assoudeh, E, "Iran’s Quest’s for a New Islamic Civilization"

38 UPI, "Iran: Production cuts difficult for OPEC members"

39 Krikoryan, R, "Iran-Saudi Relations: the Foreign Policy of Sectarianism" Institute for Security and Development Studies Research

40 New York Times, "How the Iranian-Saudi Proxy Struggle Tore Apart the Middle East"

41 Nye, J. S, "Hard and Soft Power in American Foreign Policy" 4-17, 2002

42 Guardian, "Gulf states considering plans to bring end to Saudi-led Qatar boycott"

43 "Global Muslim Brotherhood Daily Watch Homepage"

44 Hoadley, S, "From defence to security: New Zealand’s hard power, soft power, and smart power" 32 (32): 18-21, 2007

45 Coville, T, "Economic Competition for Regional Supremacy: Iran Versus Saudi Arabia (and Qatar)"

46 Theohary, C, "Conventional Arms Transfers to Developing Nations, 2008-2015" Congressional Research Service

47 Hettne, B, "Civilian Power or Soft Imperialism-The EU as a Global Actor and the Role of Interregionalism" 10 (10): 535-552, 2005

48 McGiffert, C, "Chinese Soft Power and its Implications for the United States: Competition and Cooperation in the Developing World" Center for Strategic and International Studies Research 2009

49 Swanstrom, N, "China’s role in Central Asia: soft and hard power" 9 (9): 79-88, 2007

50 Kurlantzick, J, "Charm Offensive: How China’s Soft Power is Transforming the World" Yale University Press 2007

51 Gause Ⅲ, G, "Beyond Sectarianism: The New Middle East Cold War"

52 OPEC, "Annual Statistical Bulletin 2017"