Toward a holistic networks pproach to strategic third-party intervention: A literature review

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

How do third parties decide to intervene in civil conflicts? The study of intervention has focused primarily on the conflict characteristics and dyadic linkages that make intervention more likely, or the conflict outcomes that interventions generate, while holding all else equal. To paint a more complete picture of what goes into the intervention decision, I advocate a shift in the way we conceive of interventions toward network analysis, which grants due agency to the multiple external actors and internal combatants that influence the decision to intervene. This review critically examines and synthesizes the recent literature on third-party interventions in civil conflict and, in so doing, identifies some areas for future research.

참고문헌 (Reference)

1 Bove V, "“Oil above Water”: Economic interdependence and third-party intervention" 60 (60): 1251-1277, 2016

2 Boehmelt T, "Why many cooks if they can spoil the broth? The determinants of multiparty mediation" 49 (49): 701-715, 2012

3 Koga J, "Where do third parties intervene? Third parties’ domestic institutions and military interventions in civil conflicts" 55 (55): 1143-1166, 2011

4 Aydin A, "Where do states go? strategy in civil war intervention" 27 (27): 47-66, 2010

5 Carment D, "Two-level games and third-party intervention: evidence from ethnic conflict in the balkans and south asia" 29 (29): 521-554, 1996

6 Nilsson D, "Turning weakness into strength: Military capabilities, multiple rebel groups and negotiated settlements" 27 (27): 253-271, 2010

7 Smith A, "To intervene or not to intervene: A biased decision" 40 (40): 16-40, 1996

8 Morgenthau HJ, "To intervene or not to intervene" 45 (45): 425-436, 1967

9 Carment D, "Three’s company: Evaluating third-party intervention in intrastate conflict" 42 (42): 572-599, 1998

10 Linebarger C, "Third-party state domestic politics and conflict management during interventions into civil conflicts" 99 (99): 744-761, 2017

11 Regan PM, "Third-party interventions and the duration of intrastate conflicts" 46 (46): 55-73, 2002

12 Balch-Lindsay D, "Third-party intervention and the civil war process" 45 (45): 345-363, 2008

13 Khosla D, "Third world states as interveners in ethnic conflicts: Implications for regional and international security" 20 (20): 1143-1156, 1999

14 Paris R, "The “responsibility to protect” and the structural problems of preventive humanitarian intervention" 21 (21): 569-603, 2014

15 Iwanami Y, "The selection and signaling effects of third-party intervention" 26 (26): 135-157, 2014

16 Bellamy AJ, "The responsibility to protect and the problem of military intervention" 84 (84): 615-639, 2008

17 Hirshleifer J, "The macrotechnology of conflict" 44 (44): 773-792, 2000

18 DeRouen K Jr, "The dynamics of civil war duration and outcome" 41 (41): 303-320, 2004

19 Sullivan PL, "The conditional impact of military intervention on internal armed conflict outcomes" 32 (32): 269-288, 2015

20 Walt SM, "The Origins of Alliances" Cornell University Press 1987

21 Butcher C, "Terrorism and external audiences: Influencing foreign intervention into civil wars" 28 (28): 774-794, 2016

22 Powell R, "Taking sides in wars of attrition" 111 (111): 219-236, 2017

23 Rost N, "Taking matters into their own hands: An analysis of the determinants of stateconducted peacekeeping in civil wars" 48 (48): 171-184, 2011

24 Regan PM, "Substituting policies during us interventions in internal conflicts: A little of this, a little of that" 44 (44): 90-106, 2000

25 Gent SE, "Strange bedfellows: The strategic dynamics of major power military interventions" 69 (69): 1089-1102, 2007

26 Bercovitch J, "Some conceptual issues and empirical trends in the study of successful mediation in international relations" 28 (28): 7-17, 1991

27 Gartner SS, "Signs of trouble: Regional organization mediation and civil war agreement durability" 73 (73): 380-390, 2011

28 Fearon J, "Signaling foreign policy interests—tying hands versus sinking costs" 41 (41): 68-90, 1997

29 Favretto K, "Should peacemakers take sides? Major power mediation, coercion, and bias" 103 (103): 248-263, 2009

30 Findley MG, "Rethinking third-party interventions into civil wars: An actor-centric approach" 68 (68): 828-837, 2006

31 Dowty A, "Refugee flows as grounds for international action" 21 (21): 43-71, 1996

32 Passmore TJA, "Rallying the troops: Collective action and self-interest in UN peacekeeping contributions" 55 (55): 366-379, 2018

33 Chang YM, "Raising the cost of rebellion: The role of third-party intervention in intrastate conflict" 20 (20): 149-169, 2009

34 DeRouen K Jr, "Putting the numbers to work: Implications for violence prevention" 42 (42): 27-45, 2005

35 Morgenthau HJ, "Politics Among Nations: The Struggle for Power and Peace" A. A. Knopf 1985

36 Bell SR, "Passenger or driver? A cross-national examination of media coverage and civil war interventions" 39 (39): 646-671, 2013

37 Saideman SM, "Overlooking the obvious: Bringing international politics back into ethnic conflict management" 4 (4): 63-86, 2002

38 Gleditsch KS, "Nosy neighbors: Third-party actors in central american conflicts" 48 (48): 379-402, 2004

39 Aydin A, "Networks of third-party interveners and civil war duration" 18 (18): 573-597, 2012

40 Bueno de Mesquita B, "Measuring systemic polarity" 19 (19): 187-216, 1975

41 Findley MG, "Lootable resources and third-party intervention into civil wars" 32 (32): 465-486, 2015

42 Balch-Lindsay D, "Killing time: The world politics of civil war duration, 1820–1992" 44 (44): 615-642, 2000

43 Shirkey ZC, "Joining by number: Military intervention in civil wars" 18 (18): 417-438, 2016

44 Corbetta R, "Intervention in conflicts from a network perspective" 29 (29): 314-340, 2012

45 Rosenau JN, "Intervention as a scientific concept" 13 (13): 149-171, 1969

46 Sandler T, "International peacekeeping operations: Burden sharing and effectiveness" 61 (61): 1875-1897, 2017

47 Pearson FS, "International military intervention, 1946–1988"

48 Krain M, "International intervention and the severity of genocides and politicides" 49 (49): 363-387, 2005

49 Carment D, "Internal constraints and interstate ethnic conflict toward a crisis-based assessment of irredentism" 39 (39): 82-109, 1995

50 Yoon MY, "Internal conflicts and cross-border military interventions in sub-Saharan Africa in the post-Cold War era" 33 (33): 277-293, 2005

51 Prantl J, "Informal groups of states and the UN Security Council" 59 (59): 559-592, 2005

52 Gent SE, "Going in when it counts: Military intervention and the outcome of civil conflicts" 52 (52): 713-735, 2008

53 Pearson FS, "Geographic proximity and foreign military intervention" 18 (18): 432-460, 1974

54 Azam JP, "Foreign aid versus military intervention in the war on terror" 54 (54): 237-261, 2010

55 Elbadawi I, "External interventions and the duration of civil wars" Princeton University 307-334, 2000

56 Huibregtse A, "External intervention in ethnic conflict" 36 (36): 265-293, 2010

57 Saideman SM, "Explaining the international relations of secessionist conflicts: Vulnerability vs. ethnic ties" 51 (51): 721-753, 1997

58 Akcinaroglu S, "Expectations, rivalries, and civil war duration" 31 (31): 349-374, 2005

59 Cetinyan R, "Ethnic bargaining in the shadow of third-party intervention" 56 (56): 645-677, 2002

60 Lektzian D, "Economic sanctions, military interventions, and civil conflict outcomes" 53 (53): 554-568, 2016

61 Bennett DS, "EUGene: A conceptual manual" 26 (26): 179-204, 2000

62 Fortna VP, "Does peacekeeping keep peace? International intervention and the duration of peace after civil war" 48 (48): 269-292, 2004

63 Boehmelt T, "Disaggregating mediations: The impact of multiparty mediation" 41 (41): 859-881, 2011

64 Regan PM, "Diplomacy and other forms of intervention in civil wars" 50 (50): 736-756, 2006

65 Putnam RD, "Diplomacy and domestic politics: The logic of two-level games" 42 (42): 427-460, 1988

66 Werner S, "Deterring intervention: The stakes of war and third-party involvement" 44 (44): 720-732, 2000

67 Corbetta R, "Determinants of third parties’ intervention and alignment choices in ongoing conflicts, 1946–2001" 6 (6): 61-85, 2010

68 Mullenbach MJ, "Deciding to intervene: An analysis of international and domestic influences on United States interventions in intrastate disputes" 34 (34): 25-52, 2008

69 Corbetta R, "Cooperative and antagonistic networks: Multidimensional affinity and intervention in ongoing conflicts, 1946–2001" 57 (57): 370-384, 2013

70 Skaperdas S, "Contest success functions" 7 (7): 283-290, 1996

71 Hirshleifer J, "Conflict and rent-seeking success functions: Ratio vs. difference models of relative success" 63 (63): 101-112, 1989

72 Regan PM, "Conditions of successful third-party intervention in intrastate conflicts" 40 (40): 336-359, 1996

73 Regan PM, "Civil wars and foreign powers: Outside interventions and intrastate conflict" University of Michigan Press 2000

74 Kathman JD, "Civil war diffusion and regional motivations for intervention" 55 (55): 847-876, 2011

75 Kathman JD, "Civil war contagion and neighboring interventions" 54 (54): 989-1012, 2010

76 Regan PM, "Choosing to intervene: Outside interventions in internal conflicts" 60 (60): 754-779, 1998

77 Aydin A, "Choosing sides: Economic interdependence and interstate disputes" 70 (70): 1098-1108, 2008

78 Altfeld MF, "Choosing sides in wars" 23 (23): 87-112, 1979

79 Cunningham DE, "Blocking resolution: How external states can prolong civil wars" 47 (47): 115-127, 2010

80 Chyzh OV, "Bankrolling repression? Modeling third-party influence on protests and repression" 62 (62): 312-324, 2018

81 Rauchhaus RW, "Asymmetric information, mediation, and conflict management" 58 (58): 207-241, 2006

82 Amegashie JA, "Asymmetric information and third-party intervention in civil wars" 25 (25): 381-400, 2014

83 Wood RM, "Armed intervention and civilian victimization in intrastate conflicts" 49 (49): 647-660, 2012

84 Jones BT, "Altering capabilities or imposing costs? Intervention strategy and civil war outcomes" 61 (61): 52-63, 2017

85 Butler CK, "African range wars: Climate, conflict, and property rights" 49 (49): 23-34, 2012

86 Stojek SM, "Adding trade to the equation: Multilevel modeling of biased civil war interventions" 52 (52): 228-242, 2015

87 Kuperman AJ, "A model humanitarian intervention? Reassessing NATO’s Libya campaign" 38 (38): 105-136, 2013