친환경차와 내연기관차의 국가 간 그리고 국내 지역간 수출경쟁력 분석 : 2요인, 3요인, 4요인, 8요인 불변 시장점유율분석과 국제공간변이할당분석

국문 초록 (Abstract)

오늘날의 자동차 산업은 가솔린엔진과 디젤엔진의 효율성을 극적으로 향상시켰고, 엄격해지는 배출가스 규제에 대한 적응을 위한 조치를 다양하게 강구하고 있다. 이러한 노력과 발전에도 환경오염의 주범에서 벗어나지 못해 내연기관차의 종식은 피할 수 없는 현실이 되고 있으나 여전히 내연기관차가 자동차의 주종을 이룬다는 점에서 친환경차뿐 아니라 내연기관차에 대한 연구를 경시하기 어렵다. 본 연구는 불변시장점유율모형과 변이할당모형을 이용하여 내연기관차와 친환경차의 수출변동을 요인별로 분해한다. 8개 변수로 구성된 불변시장점유율모형을 승용차에 적용하여 성장효과, 상호작용효과, 특정경쟁력효과, 동태적 구조효과는 수출증가에 기여하며, 일반경쟁력효과가 양의 값을 갖는데 비해 특정경쟁력효과는 음의 값을 가져 전반적인 경쟁력 약화에 따른 수출감소를 특정 시장에서의 수출증가로 보전하고 있음을 보인다. 3개 효과로 구성된 불변시장점유율분석을 실시하여 전반적으로 한국의 경쟁력효과가 규모효과와 교차효과보다 더 큰 영향을 미친다는 것도 밝힌다. 한국의 친환경차 수출변동을 8개 효과로 분해하여 규모효과, 상호작용효과, 일반경쟁력효과, 동태적 구조효과, 순이차효과, 시장효과는 수출증가로 작용하나 상품효과와 특정경쟁력효과는 감소요인으로 작용하며, 친환경차의 수입비중이 높은 시장에서 상품구조가 수출을 증가시키는 요인이라는 것을 보인다. 전반적인 경쟁력 우위에 따라 수출증가가 이루어지나 특정 시장에서는 경쟁력 약화로 수출이 감소한다는 것도 보인다. 변이할당분석을 실시하여 친환경차 수출에서 한국의 수출증가는 경쟁력보다 수출구조의 영향을 크게 받는다는 것도 밝힌다.

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The Constant Market Shares (CMS) methodology has been a useful tool for decades, and is often used to identify the factors underlying export performance across countries. Most recently, the CMS has been widely used in the international trade and its inter-disciplinary literature. The model divides the total export growth into eight different parts: growth effect, market effect, commodity effect, structural interaction effect, general competitive effect, specific competitive effect, pure second-order effect and dynamic structural residual. By analyzing the changes of these effects, wee can determine the changes in competitiveness of the export commodities in the target country. This paper shows that for Korea’s internal combustion engine cars the growth effect, the structure interaction effect, the specific competitiveness and the dynamic structural effect are positive, but the market effect, the commodity effect, the comprehensive competitiveness effect and pure second-order effect are negative using the constant market share analysis. The decomposition results also show that for Korea’s green cars the scale effect, the structure interaction effect, the pure second-order effect and the market effect are positive, while the commodity effect and the specific competitiveness effect are negative. The observation about shift and share effects is that shift effect is an important source that explains more than 300 percent of the changes in Korea’s car exports to the world market but its competitive position deteriorates against the world for the negative shift effect. The shift-share analysis indicates that for Korea, the US, and France the export growth of green car is more affected by export structure than competitiveness, while for Belgium, Austria and the UK competitiveness is a driving force. The export of green cars from China, Japan, Sweden, Italy and Germany is found to be greatly affected by the global market.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• 요약
• 1. 서론
• 2. 내연기관차 수출분석
• 3. 친환경차 수출분석
• 4. 결론
• 참고문헌
• Abstract

참고문헌 (Reference)

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