미성숙상업지역에서의 상가개발전략에 관한 연구 : 재무적 타당성을 중심으로 = A Study on Strategies of Commercial Real Estate Development : The Case of Premature Land

국문 초록 (Abstract)

영문초록 :The landlord who owns the premature land which is expected to be matured might have 3 strategies of real estate development. The first way is to sell as a raw land. The second way is to develop one or two story building in order to lease the building. The third way is to develop full-scale building can be allowed by the related laws in order to sell or lease the property. The case site was planned by local government for the benefit of the passengers who would get on and take off the subway or the Korean train express. Although the Korean train express was opened in April 1, 2004, the number of passengers was not enough to vitalize this trade area. The construction of the double track subway has been on the process and the single track would be changed to double track. When the construction is completed, the urban railway station areas would be motivated. As illustrated in Chapter Ⅱ, in order to develop this premature land the developer should decide what was the gap of the demand and supply through a series of market analysis. But it is a critical thing to forecast demand. To analyze the economic base of a given community, the following five steps should be followed: 1. Identify economic base 2. Estimate basic employment (or changes in base employment) 3. Calculate economic base multiplier 4. Forecast total employment 5. Calculate population to employment ratio 6. Forecast total population. As a satellite city of Seoul Metropolitan area, the region of the case site was a kind of bed town. And the phrase of real estate cycle of the trade area was on the introduction or early growth curve. So it was not sufficient to forecast the demand of the trade area, especially retail properties in a process of typical market analysis. Because the improvements of transport and traffic as a development of urban railway station areas would activate the trade area. The early opening of Gyeong-ui double track subway at least until 2007, there should be crowded by the various type of commercial utilities in this area. But the selling of this area's retail shops would keep low level till then. As a developer it is a significant meaning to research how to develop this premature land. The trade area which would be activated in the near future, the developer should focus on financial feasibilities in three ways as followed First, compare the gross margin of the selling of the raw land with the gross margin of building a commercial real estate in order to decide the building scale. To build a commercial real estate, the building scale scheme was considered a single story, 3-story, 5-story, 8-story building respectively. The floor area ratio was 600%, so the maximum building scale was 8 story. The net rate of return of selling the raw land was 67%. It was similar to the net rate of return in case of the selling the 3-story building, which was 68%. It was shown that thenet rate of return was 80% in case of the selling over 5-story building. So the net rate of the return which would be built not less than 3-story building was greater than the gross margin to sale cost ratio which was sold as a raw land. Second, compare the gross margin of selling raw land with the gross margin of building a commercial real estate in a full scale which was followed by the difference of the sales rate. The gross margin of selling raw land was ￦ 2.9billion. If the developer develope this land as an8 story-building in full scale, the sales rate of this real estate should not be less than 64%. When it would be sold the unsold, it should increase gross margin. So if the developer was convinced the sales rate above 64%, it was more profitable to build a commercial real estate than to sell raw land. Third, compare an onestory building with building 8-story building. In variance of the vacancy rate, IRR and the value of the building was changed. The Case A and Case B was to build a single storycommercial building. Case A; the vacancy rate of the first year was assumed 20%, the second year 10%, the third year 5%. Case B: the vacancy rate of the first year was assumed 20%, the second year and after 5%. The Case C and Case D was to build an 8-story commercial building. Case C; the vacancy rate of the first year was assumed 40%, the second year 30%, the third year 20%, the forth year and after was assumed 10%. Case D: the vacancy rate of the first year was assumed 40%, the second year and after was assumed 10%. IRR and the value of the building were calculated on each case. Case A's IRR was 7.7%, Case B's was 7.8%, Case C's was 16.5%, Case D's was 17.6%. As a value of the building, Case A's value was ￦5.09 Bil, Case B's was ￦5.12 Bil, Case C's was ￦18.9 Bil, Case D's was ￦19.6 Bil. (The discount rate was 10%) Divided by the first year's input, A was 105%, B was 105%, C was 144%, D was 149%. Although it was taken into account the vacancy rate, to build an 8-story building had the highest IRR and the profit to first year's input ratio. 'A Study on Strategies of Commercial Real Estate Development: The Case of Premature Land' was focused on the financial feasibility. The developer should take one of the plans which were developed in this trade area. He should determine whether to sell as a raw land or to develop full scale building as allowed by the floor area ratio. The case site was financially feasible when it was developed in full scale. IRR and the value of the building were the factors. If the sales rate would be above 64%, to develop full scale of commercial building was more financially feasible than to sell the raw land. And considered the vacancy rate, the IRR and the value of full scale building were higher than those of a single story building's