This research evaluates the Russia-Ukraine conflict through the lens of Carl von Clausewitz's theory. Even when Russia amassed along the Ukrainian border, world leaders, analysts, and the international press anticipated the overwhelming dominance of t...
This research evaluates the Russia-Ukraine conflict through the lens of Carl von Clausewitz's theory. Even when Russia amassed along the Ukrainian border, world leaders, analysts, and the international press anticipated the overwhelming dominance of the Russian military. However, as the war commenced, the situation differed from their speculations, and Ukraine demonstrated unexpected resistance. The conflict has persisted for almost two years. Within this context, understanding the internal factors of the war based on Clausewitz's theory would not only decipher the prolonged causes of the conflict but also enable predictions about the future. Two centuries ago, military strategist Clausewitz argued that for a nation to triumph in war, a delicate equilibrium must be maintained between the trinity of the people, the military, and the government. Furthermore, he emphasized through the assertion that "war is merely the continuation of politics by other means" that top policymakers must possess clear political objectives. Without distinct goals, even if successful militarily, there might be a risk of political defeat. From Clausewitz's perspective, evaluating the Russia-Ukraine war reveals Russia's failure in achieving the trinity balance of war. There was a lack of active support from the citizens, an inadequate military, and a government that failed to present clear political objectives. Particularly, Putin's erroneous establishment of the political objective to control the entirety of Ukraine led to the protraction of the war. Ultimately, Russia failed to articulate distinct political objectives and failed to employ the appropriate means. Even if Russia were to achieve military victory, the war is essentially a loss. For Russia to succeed in achieving policy objectives in the war, it is imperative to restore the trinity balance now and articulate clear political objectives.