India, Iran, and the GCC: Trilateral Cooperation in the Making = India, Iran, and the GCC: Trilateral Cooperation in the Making

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

India`s close relations with the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) states, especially the key players Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are beyond the conventional norms and practices, but nonetheless as durable as can be imagined. In parallel with and as a complement to these strong ties, relations between India and Iran are developing amidst some turbulence (mutual need will steer the future cooperation). As a result, it is becoming more evident that the three, if one lumps together all GCC states, have common interests in a trilateral cooperation that benefits from the respective strengths of the parties involved. As a fast-developing BRICS country, India needs both of its partners to fulfil its aspirations to become a major power on the world scene, on a par with ever more ambitious China. India`s tactics differ from those of the “Awakened Dragon” (China), in that “the Tiger” (India) uses a more patient and subtle approach. This is mainly due to its ability to steer more confidently than the “Dragon”, sometimes seen as short on patience. India, the biggest trading partner of GCC states, has over the past few years laid solid foundations for its relations with Iran, as their common interests are becoming more evident in view of current trends in world politics and economy. The bilateral ties being cemented between India and Iran include in particular cooperation in the energy sector, with both nations genuinely seeking to establish firm ties in that particular area. This is evidenced especially by India`s oil imports from Iran, which totalled $12 billion in 2010, while gas imports are going playing an even greater role in boosting future economic relations. For both sides, the Persian Gulf or region, as now termed, is of utmost importance. India has secured a favourable position in its relations with the GCC states, whereas Iran is ever more eager to promote ties with its southern neighbours, due to their shared interests both politically, for security purposes, and economically. As the saying goes: “One can choose one`s friend, but not one`s neighbour”, and in this particular case, there is no other option but cooperation. Moreover, India is in an ideal position to cater to needs on both sides of the region. Though it did not welcome the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran, India has maintained friendly relations with Iran in many areas. There are significant trade ties, particularly in crude oil imports into India and diesel exports to Iran. Iran has frequently objected to Pakistan`s attempts to draft anti-India resolutions at international organizations such as the OIC. India welcomed Iran`s inclusion as an observer state in the SAARC regional organization. Iran`s trade with India reached up to US$16 billion in 2010, therefore exhibiting an 80% yearly increase. When including interchanges through third party countries like UAE, this figure reaches $30 billion. In 2008-09, Iranian oil accounted for nearly 16.5% of India`s crude oil imports. Indian oil imports from Iran increased by 9.5% in 2008-09, making Iran the second largest oil supplier to India. Likewise, about 40% of all refined oil consumed by Iran is imported from India. Lastly, in 2009, Indian oil companies announced their plans to invest US$5 billion in developing an Iranian gas field in the Persian Gulf. Bilateral relations between India and Saudi Arabia have strengthened considerably owing to cooperation in regional affairs and trade. Saudi Arabia ranks among the largest suppliers of oil to India, which is one of the top seven trading partners with Saudi Arabia and its fifth biggest investor. Generally speaking, India and the Arab states of the region enjoy strong cultural and economic ties. This is reflected in the fact that more than 50% of the oil consumed by India comes from the region and that Indian nationals form the largest expatriate community in the Arabian Peninsula. The annual remittance by Indian expatriates in the region amounted to US$23 billion in 2010. India is one of the main trading partners of the GCC, with non-oil trade between India and Dubai alone having amounted to US$22 billion in 2010. The region has also played an important part in addressing India`s energy security concerns, with Saudi Arabia and Kuwait regularly increasing their oil supplies to India. Despite a host of US-engineered sanctions targeting Iran, Tehran has become Dubai`s major trade partner after India. Tehran and Dubai`s trade volume exceeded US$15 billion in 2010, making Iran the UAE`s biggest export partner. As for relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia, the two giants in the region, they can benefit from their common interests in making the region secure with the help of one another, but seem to differ in how to gain mutual trust. A very delicate and subtle balance is gradually being achieved in forging a trilateral partnership between India, Iran, and the GCC. All will not be smooth, and turbulence may occur on the way, but the ties are expected to gradually cement and evolve positively in the coming decade.

참고문헌 (Reference)

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