韓國 輸出의 趨勢와 豫測 = Exports of Korea: Trends and Prospects

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Ⅰ. Preface
Exceedingly unfavorable balance of payments of Korea is mainly caused by the wide gap between imports and exports of commodities. Therefore, reduction of the gap can, surely, contribute to the improvement of the balance of payments. From this viewpoint, it is natural that export promotion is greatly emphasized. However, can Korea export three hundred million dollars in 1967, or six hundred million dollars in 1971? And does expansion of exports itself contribute much to the improvement of the balance of payments, as is said?
This paper is just attempted to examine these problems.

Ⅱ. Trends of Exports(1)
2.1 Exports by type
In Korea, bonded improvement export was begun in 1962. The importance of the bonded improvement export In total exports is not large yet, but it is steadily growing. Principal bonded improvement goods are clothes, aluminium plates, artificial Bowers, sweaters, vinyl products, etc. And main export markets are the United States of America, South Vietnam, Japan, and Hong Kong. The bonded improvement export has contributed to the variety of export items.
2.2 Exports by commodity
According to the trends of exports by commodity, we can classify the export goods into one of the following categories:
(a) rising trend 1) steeply rising, 2) slowly rising, 3) rising with oscillation, 4) rising from falling;
(b) falling trend 1) steeply falling, 2) slowly falling, 3) falling with oscillation, 4) falling from rising;
(c) stationary trend;
(d) oscillatory trend;
(e) irregular trend.
In the category of steeply rising trend, fresh fish, dried fish, crustacea and molluscs, raw silk, zinc ore, veneer sheets and plywood, clothes, cotton fabrics, and rayon fabrics are included. But the importance of a commodity to the total exports fluctuates severely year by year.

Ⅲ. Trends of Exports(2)
3.1 Exports by commodity group, by use, and by sector.
Classified by commodity group, 86.1 per cent of the total exports are filled with Inedible crude materials, food and live animals, and manufactured goods classified chiefly by material. Manufactured goods classified chiefly by material had a weight of 10 per cent in 1962, but in 1963 it rose rapidly up to 30 per cent.
Classified by use, 90.7 per cent of export goods are raw materials and consumer's goods. Therefore, Korean export can be called raw material-and consumer's goods-oriented.
Sorted by sector, mining products maintained the top in exportation up to 1962. But in 1963 the highest was manufactured goods. The exports ratio of products of primary and secondary industries was 81 : 19 In 1960, but it changed to 48:52 in 1963.
3.2 Exports by market
The decreasing ratio of relative exports to developed countries is a general tendency. But still majority of Korean exports is shipped to Japan and the United States of America. Exports to developing countries are mainly to Hong Kong and South Vietnam. The portion of exports to the markets of Japan the United States and Hong Kong is, on the average, 79.5 per cent. Therefore exportation of Korea is a few-country-oriented type.
3.3. Exports by market-rum-commodity
Korean exports to the United States are mainly manufactured goods while exports to Japan are products of primary industry. Exports to ECAFE areas and other countries are products of primary and secondary industries.

Ⅳ.Forecasting of Exports
4.1 Methods of forecasting
In general, there are two methods in forecasting future exports: the one is to forecast them on the ground of expectations of export traders, and changes in supply conditions; the other is to forecast with functional relations. The latter is divided again into two groups: method using trend or regression equations, and method using indices of the intensity of exports as explanatory variables of functional relations.
In this paper, however method using linear trend equations is adopted; in this case it is unreasonable to fit parabolic equations to data. And no drastic changes in foreign demand to Korean commodities and no bottleneck in capacities to supply are assumed in the forecasting.
4.2 Estimates of future exports
First, using least squares methods we derive linear trend equations by commodity group and by main markets.
Second, with these trend equations we forecast exports by commodity group and main markets.
Last, we calculate the forecasts of the total exports as follows: Case I (Using linear trend equations by commodity group)
Aggregating the estimates of exports by commodity group and adding to these two hundred thousand of assumed forecasts of not classified, we get the simple forecasts of total exports as shown in column A of the table below.
However, when we assume 10 per cent of expansion effects of trade policy, these simple forecasts are enlarged by 10 per cent as in colum B. They are our final fore casts of total exports.

Forecasts of Exports ( I ) In thousand of dollars
Year A B
1965 127,123 139,848
1966 146,733 161,407
1967 166,332 182,966
1968 185,931 204,524
1969 205,533 226,086
1970 225,129 247.642
1971 244,728 269,201
Case Ⅱ (Using linear trend equations by main markets)
Aggregating the forecasts of exports by main markets, we get total export forecasts to Japan the United States and Hong Kong. If we assume the portion of exports to above three countries is 65 per cent of the total exports, forecasts of total exports are given as shown in colum B, and if 60 per cent in as column C.

Forecasts of Exports ( Ⅱ ) In thousand of dollars
Year A B C
1965 87,695 135,055 146,455
1966 100,386 154,595 167,645
1967 113,015 174,043 188,735
1968 125,964 193,676 210,026
1969 138,452 213,218 231,216
1970 151,141 232,757 252,406
1971 163,830 252,298 273,360
4.3 Appraisal of the forecasts
As shown above, we can hardly expect even to export three hundred million dollars in 1971. Furthermore it seems difficult even to realize the above forecasts, on the following reasons:
First, high growth rate of exports in the preceeding years has been caused not so much the result of development of new export markets, improvement of productivity, or rationalisation of management of exporters as the result of special favors in finance and other fields by government. These favors, which have broken internal equilibrium of Korean economy, can hardly be expected hereafter.
Second, it is hard to expand export markets due to natural and artificial obstacles abroad.
Third, promt reorganization of industries to meet the changes in foreign demand pattern is also not easy.
Last, 10 per cent of expansion effects of trade policy are assumed in getting final forecasts. But it is also not easy even to realize these effects.

V. Role of Exports in Improvement of the Balance of Payments
5.1 Gross contribution of exports
In 1963, the gap between imports and exports was 410.2 million dollars, and in 1964, 245.8 million dollars. The reduction of the gap was caused, mainly, by the reduction of imports of 132.9 million dollars. Expansion of exports
contributed little to the improvement of the balance of payments.
5.2 Net contribution of exports
Total rate of foreign exchange earnings is decreasing year by year because exports of manufactured goods which have low rate of exchange earnings are gaining more importance in total exports. For instance, in 1963, exports of manufactured goods which were 56.7 per cent of total exports, had almost same portion in foreign exchange earnings as those of agricultural and fishery products, which were 23,4 per cent of total exports. Even viewed from contribution to foreign exchange earnings, expansion of exports contributed little to the improvement of the balance of payments.

Ⅵ. Conclusion
From the above examination the followings are concluded:
First, we can hardly expect even to export three hundred million dollars in 1971 far from three hundred million dollars in 1967, or six hundred million dollars in 1971, unless there are drastic changes in foreign demand patterns to Korean commodities in a favorable way or we can get some guarantees enough to make it possible to realize these targets, from the United States, Japans Vietnam, etc.
Second, export promotion policy in the future should be based entirely on traders to develop new export markets, improve productivity, or rationalize management. And special favors by government should be given only so far as internal equilibrium is not broken.
Third, expansion of exports in the future should be surely accompanied by imports reduction or imports restriction and raising total rate of foreign exchange earnings, as far as possible. Though hard, imports of luxury and necessary goods should be restricted and total rate of foreign exchange earnings raised by all means. That rate can be raised by expanding exports of primary industry products continuously and raising rate of foreign exchange earnings of manufactured goods together with their expansion.
In this occasion, such e(forts should be concentrated on goods of steeply rising trend, which are mentioned above, first of all.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• Ⅰ. 序 論
• Ⅱ. 輸出의 推移 (1)
• Ⅲ. 輸出의 推移 (2)
• Ⅳ. 輸出의 豫測
• Ⅴ. 輸出의 役割　
• Ⅵ. 結 論