지리정보데이터를 활용한 전투와 폭력시위 결정 요인 분석: 미얀마 사례를 중심으로 = Mapping Conflict in Myanmar: A Geographic Information System (GIS) Approach to the Analysis of Riots and Battles

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This study utilizes GIS data to analyze key features of riots, battles within Myanmar over 2015-2016. Three hypotheses inform this research. First, regions with economically disadvantaged minority groups are more likely to experience political violence than other areas with more broad-based economic advantage. Second, the higher the level of discrimination the part of the Myanmar government toward local minorities, the more frequent the disturbances will be. Third, the battles occur systematically and have larger displacements than violent demonstration. Our analysis of the spatial distribution of political violence in Myanmar reveals that the causes vary considerable across different regions of the country. Higher instances can be seen in areas where ethnic minorities suffer from political and/ or economic discrimination, and this seems to further increase with distance from the capital. Another clear pattern that emerges from the analysis of GIS data for conflict shows that riots occur most frequently in densely populated cities and are directly linked to food security issues such as soaring prices due to droughts. This approach to mapping occurrences of diverse kinds of violent conflict, and their spread to other areas of the country helps us to more clearly identify the causes of such disturbances, and to identify the distinguishing features that mark conflicts related to systematic political discrimination, as opposed incidents of sporadic riots.

국문 초록 (Abstract)

본 연구는 지리정보데이터를 활용하여 2015년부터 2016년까지 미얀마 내에서 발생한 폭력시위와 전투의 주요 특징을 분석한다. 연구 가설은 세 가지이다. 첫째, 경제적으로 소외된 집단이 많이 거주하는 지역은 다른 지역에 비해 폭력시위와 전투 발생 확률이 높다. 둘째, 소수민족에 대한 차별의 수준이 높을수록 분쟁의 강도가 높아진다. 셋째, 조직적 행동이 수반되는 전투는 폭력시위보다 분쟁의 전이(displacement) 정도가 더 크다. 분석 결과 미얀마 내에서 발생한 폭력시위와 전투에 영향을 주는 원인이 각기 다름을 발견했다. 정치·경제적으로 차별받는 소수민족이 많이 거주하는 지역일수록 전투의 발생 빈도가 높았으며 특히 수도로부터의 거리가 멀수록 폭력시위 보다 전투가 더 빈번하게 발생했다. 반면 폭력시위는 인구가 밀집해 있는 도시에서 발생했으며 가뭄 등으로 인한 물가 폭등 등 식량안보 문제와 직결되어 나타나고 있다.
본 연구는 이와 같이 미얀마 내에서 발생한 전투와 폭력시위의 원인 규명뿐 아니라 인근 지역으로 확산되는 전투의 특징에 주목하고 있다. 전투는 정치적으로 차별받는 소수민족이 경제적으로 궁핍할 때 조직적으로 발생하며 이는 산발적으로 나타나는 폭력시위와 다른 양상을 보인다.

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