미국의 대중국 반덤핑관세 부과조사에 관한 연구 = 벡터오차수정모형을 이용

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The U.S. has often been regarded as the most prominent advocate for the principle of free trade. However, the U.S. is also one of the heavy users of the trade remedy actions in the world to protect domestic industries. Therefore, there was a widespread criticism of the U.S. trade remedy actions by other WTO membership countries as being protectionist. China ranked the first in the U.S. for receiving antidumping charges. Against this backdrop, this paper reveals the characteristics of the United States' antidumping measures against China, which have rarely been studied in the literature.
This paper takes the overall trade balance and bilateral trade balance as the external explanatory and also uses the unemployment rate and real GDP growth rate as the domestic explanatory variables. For empirical analysis, unit-root test was conducted to understand the safety of time series. The results show that all variables are not Ⅰ(0) time series. Instead, they are Ⅰ(1) time series. To this, co integration verification was conducted based on the use of Johansen verification method to define the existence (or non-existence) of long-term balance relationship among variables. Johansen's cointegration test result showed that it's a long run equilibrium relationship between AD investigation and bilateral trade balance and also one between the former and the unemployment. There is also one between AD investigation and real GDP growth.
The error correction model shows that there is a causality running from the unemployment to AD investigation and real GDP growth to real GDP growth and bilateral trade balance and bilateral trade balance. As the unemployment rate and the deficit of the bilateral trade balance increased and real GDP growth decreases, the number of the investigation of AD against the China exports appears to increase in the U.S.