해양사고 예보시스템 개발에 관한 연구 = (A) Study on the Development of Marine Casualty Forecasting System

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The main target of this study is to develop the Marine Casualty Forecasting System (MCFS) based on the Virtual Reality (VR) modeling techniques.
The aim of MCFS is to broadcast the predicted number of marine casualty and the calculated risk level as like daily weather forecasting.
For this purpose, firstly, the data relating to a total of 724 ship casualties in the west-southern sea area (latitude 33°N~35°N and longitude 124°E~127°E) of Korean peninsula in the years 1990~2000 have been compiled, numerical ship casualty D/B (Data Base) constructed and statistically analyzed.
Secondly, the two kinds of visualization method to give easy comprehension of the predicted results to the peoples who have no knowledge about statistical meaning of the ship casualty are explored. Especially, GUI (Graphical User Interface) based visualization method and VR based immersion techniques are mainly adopted in this procedures.
Thirdly, the multiple regression equations and the casualty prediction models were established and then performed fitting tests for the prediction models.
Lastly, the five casualty forecasting and warning systems are developed and then evaluate their usability. The details of five systems are as followings :
(1) GUI Based Casualty Forecasting System (CFS) ; it can be predict the daily number of ship casualty with WCD-LIP (Weighted Cell Distributed Linear-In-the Parameter) model and, display the predicted results at each partitioned open sea area.
(2) GUI Base Casualty Warning system (CWS) ; it can be calculate the time based risk levels for the total studying sea areas and, display the risk levels using bar-graph type with risk criteria.
(3) GUI Based Casualty Forecasting and Warning System ; it is a dual system combined CFS with CWS to give convenient use.
(4) VR based Casualty Warning Visualization System (CWVS) ; it is to visualize the degree of risk levels in the virtual sea space of east-western area using colored six scales. Using this system a user can know more intuitive risky area than that of the CWS.
(5) VR based Sea Environmental Visualization System (SEVS) ; it is to simulate sea environmental states according to the wave height, wave direction, visibilities, clouds and mountains, etc. Using this system a user can understand realistic sea states as their needs.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• 목차 = ⅰ
• ABSTRACT = ⅳ
• List of Figures = ⅵ
• List of Tables = ⅸ
• Nomenclature = xi
• 제1장 서론 = 1
• 1.l 연구배경 및 목적 = 1
• 1.2 연구범 위 및 방법 = 9
• 1.3 논문의 구성 = 11
• 제2장 해양사고 수량화 D/B 개발 = 12
• 2.1 수량화 D/B 개발개요 = 12
• 2.2 D/B 개발범위 = 13
• 2.3 데이터 수집 = 14
• 2.4 데이터 분류 = 16
• 2.5 수량화 D/B 구축 = 21
• 제3장 가시화 가법 개발 = 23
• 3.1 가시화 개요 = 23
• 3.2 GUI 기반 가시화 기법 개발 = 24
• 3.3 GUI 가시화 기법을 적용한 해양사고 분석 = 26
• 3.3.1 분석적용기간 선정 = 26
• 3.3.2 연도별 분석결과 = 31
• 3.3.3 월별 분석결과 = 32
• 3.3.4 일별 분석결과 = 34
• 3.3.5 주별 분석결과 = 35
• 3.3.6 시간별 분석결과 = 37
• 3.3.7 사고종류별 분석결과 = 38
• 3.3.8 사고대상 선박별 분석결과 = 40
• 3.4 VR 기반 가시화 기법 = 42
• 3.4.1 VR 개요 = 42
• 3.4.2 VR 해상공간 객체구현 = 43
• 3.4.3 VR 해상공간 구축기술의 평가 = 61
• 제4장 해양사고 예측기볍 개발 = 67
• 4.1 예측 모델 모델 = 67
• 4.1.1 Baltic 모델 = 67
• 4.1.2 LIP 모델 = 68
• 4.1.3 CD-LIP 모델 = 71
• 4.1.4 WCD-LIP 모델l
• 4.2 예측모델 적용결과 = 75
• 4.2.1 Baltic 모델 적용결과 = 75
• 4.2.2 LIP 모델 적용결과 = 77
• 4.2.3 CD-LIP 모델 적용결과 = 79
• 4.2.4 WCD-LIP 모델 적용결과 = 81
• 4.3 최적모델 선정을 위한 오차분석 = 84
• 4.3.1 오차분석개요 = 84
• 4.3.2 잔차 분석 결과 = 85
• 4.3.3 SSE, SSR, SST 분석결과 = 87
• 4.3.4 모델 선정 = 89
• 제5장 해양사고 예측 시스템 개발 = 91
• 5.1 시스템 개발 개요 = 91
• 5.2 GUI 기반 해양사고 예보 시스템 = 93
• 5.3 GUI 기반 해양사고 정보시스템 = 96
• 5.4 GUI 기반 예보경보 혼합시스템 = 98
• 5.5 VR 기반 해양사고 위험 가시화 시스템 = 99
• 5.6 VR기반 환경 가시화 시스템 = 102
• 제6장 결론 = 104
• 참고문헌 = 106
• 김 창경의 연구발표 실적 목록 = 117