數理的 外揷法에 의한 韓國의 將來人口 推計 및 人口再分布의 計量的 分析 = Population Projection by the Method of Mathematical Extrapolation and Analysis of Population Redistribution in Korea

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

In this paper, the writer has estimated a model of the population growth curve and a population center during the period of 1955 through 1975.
1) Population projection by the method of extrapolation
The writer has estimated- a model of the optimum curve by means of mathematical extrapolation based on logistic curve, using the census data since 1955 and mid-year population. The model of the optimum logistic curve o i Korea is estimated to be as the following;
p=54.732/1+1.5509e^(-0.04838t) (unit : 1,000,000).
We can guess a t a saturation population and at a demographic transition by virtue of an estimation of this logistic curve.
The saturation population of Korea is estimated as 54, 732,000 in this paper.
In this paper we have found the fact that the demographic transition of Korea has been rapidly advancing since 1963.
2) Center of population
In the present research, we are dealing with analysis of migratory fluctuation on the population center in order to analyse the population redistribution during the period between 1955 and 1975.
The center of population has been obtained, based on the coordinates of the unit region (x_(ij), y_(ij)) and the population p_(ij) of the region concerned
◁그림 삽입▷ (원문을 참조하세요)
To sum up the population-center in Korea could t e pointed out to have the following characteristics as shown on Table 5, 6 and Fig 1.
It can be said to have the rector of population center advancing toward on Seoul.
It can be said to be on the acceleration.