분위회귀분석을 이용한 한국 기업의 성장결정요인 분석 = The determinants of growth for Korean firms using quantile fixed regression

국문 초록 (Abstract)

본 논문은 2000∼2010년 동안 우리나라의 매출액 30억원 이상 1조원 미만인 기업을 대상으로 기업규모의 성장률 분포가 기업규모 기준에 관계없이 라플라스분포보다 꼬리가 두꺼운 결과를 얻었다. 한편, 이들 기업을 대상으로 한 기업규모 성장률 결정요인에 대한 분석 에서는 Gibrat`s law가 기각되었다. 다른 한편, 업력의 추정치는 기존 연구에서 전통적으로 얻은 결과와 상반되었다. 즉, 매출액을 기준으로 한 분위고정회귀분석에서는 분포의 전영역에서 업력이 높아지면서 기업규모 성장률에 양의 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 그리고, 통합분위회귀분석이 관찰되지 않은 기업의 개별성을 고려한 분위고정회귀분석보다 다소 과도추정 되는 것을 확인하였다. 즉, 분위고정회귀분석에서의 대부분의 추정치가 통합분위회귀 분석에서의 추정치보다 작은 결과를 얻었다.

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

First of all, this paper shows a result that the distribution of growth rates for firms whose sales are KRW 3 billion or more but under KRW 1 trillion tends to have fatter tails than the Laplace distribution regardless of firm size. On the one hand, in this analysis we reject Gibrat`s law at all points of the conditional distribution. On the other hand, the estimate of age contrasts to the previous findings. In other words, we find the positive dependence of growth rate on age, when sales is taken as a measure of firm size. Moreover, most of estimates of pooled quantile regression are found to be a little overestimated compared to the estimates of quantile fixed regression considering unobserved heteroskedesticity.

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