한국의 정서적 양극화: 제20대 대선결과의 이론적 및 경험적 논의 = Testing Affective Polarization at the Mass Level in the 2022 Presidential Election

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This article uses the KSDC survey conducted right after the 2022 presidential election to test whether party-feelings or issue preferences drive voters' choice of presidential candidates . Affective polarization is found to be more significant in the 20th presidential election. Partisan affective polarization measured with feeling thermometer ratings on both in-party and out-party, played a key role in choosing presidential candidates. It is driven by traditional regionalism, presidential approval, ideological differences, and policy preferences. The strongest predictor of party-feelings is partisanship measured by party identification. Ideology , presidential approval , and social welfare attitudes appear to be significantly associated with party-feelings. In addition, this article what predicts electoral choices of Korean voters. Own-party or rival party feelings are the most important predictors, shrinking the traditional role of regionalism. Significant impact of issues preferences and ideology on voter's choice disappears in an era of partisan affective polarization. However this article cannot evaluate causal role of affective partisanship to influence voter's preferences because the KSDC survey utilized here is cross-sectional.

국문 초록 (Abstract)

이 글은 한국정치의 양극화 현상을 이론적 및 경험적으로 논의하고자 한다. 최근 몇 년 사이 한국의 정당양극화는 심각한 수준에 이르렀다. 이는 정당과 진영이 서로를 비난하는 일반적 현상으로 뿌리내린  “내로남불”에서 드러난다. 정치의 양극화는 정당 간에 정책에 대한 합의를 불가능하게 함으로써 정책이 실현되지 못하게 만들고 민주적 규범을 부정하는 점에서 민주주의를 위협할 수 있다. 양극화 상황에서 반대 입장을 무시한 일방적 정책추진은 비효율적이고 비생산적 결과를 낳는다. 그러나 양극화가 민주주의와 정책실현에 미치는 폐해에도 불구하고 그 기원은 언제이며 무엇으로 인해 악화되는지에 대한 국내 연구는 아주 미흡하다. 이 글은 KSDC 조사를 활용하여 국내의 주요한 정치적 균열을 반영하는 양극화가 어떤 요인에 의해 영향을 받으며 또한 지난 대선에서 유권자의 선택에 얼마나 영향을 주었는가를 검토한다. 여기서의 연구결과는 정서적 양극화를 추동한 것은 이념이나 정책적 요인보다는 정서적 요인의 영향이 강하며 후자는 다시 후보선택으로 연결됨을 제시한다. 첫째, 정서적 양극화를 주도하는 요인은 정체성이다. 대중이 느끼는 정당 간 온도차를 정서적 양극화로 간주할 때 정당온도의 변화를 예측하는 요인은 정당일체감이며 그 다음으로 정책선호와 이념성향이다. 둘째, 후보지지를 잘 예측하는 요인을 예측력 순서로 보면 정당온도, 정당일체감이며 정책이나 이념의 효과는 사라진다. 미국에서는 정책과 정체성의 역할에 대해 서로 엇갈리는 연구가 공존하는 데 비해 이 연구는 한국의 대중적 양극화를 추동하는 것은 정책이나 이념보다는 정당일체감과 정당에 대한 온도임을 제시한다.

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