한국의 FTA가 수직적 특화에 미치는 영향 연구 = A Study on the Effects of Korea’s FTAs on Vertical Specialization

국문 초록 (Abstract)

본 연구는 1998년부터 2014년까지의 기간 동안 한국과 FTA 체결국간(9건의 FTA, 총 45개국) 수직적 특화 규모를 도출하고, 이를 토대로 FTA가 수직적 특화에 미친 영향을 분석하고자 하였다. FTA 체결국은 실질적 자유화 수준 및 선진국/개도국 구분 기준에 따라 유형화하고, 국별·산업별 수직적 특화 교역액은 직접접근법과 IO접근법을 활용하여 도출하였다.
한국의 수직적 특화 교역은 미국, 싱가포르, ASEAN, EU와 같이 기존에 한국과 교역이 활발한 상대국을 중심으로 FTA 발효 이후 대체로 증가세를 보였다. 산업별 수직적 특화 현황에서는 전기 및 전자기기제조업, 화학제품 제조업 등 고기술을 필요로 하는 산업에서 수직적 특화의 비중이 높았다.
합동 OLS, 고정효과 모형, Hausman & Taylor 모형, FE2SLS 모형을 통해 FTA가 수직적 특화 교역에 미친 영향을 실증분석한 결과에서 한국이 발효 중인 FTA는 양자간 수직적 특화 교역 규모 증가에 기여한 것으로 추정되었으며, 다만 그 계수 값은 분석모형에 따라 크게 차이를 보였다. 각 FTA별 분석 결과에서는 한국이 FTA의 실질적 자유화 수준이 높은 상대국들과 그리고 선진국보다는 개도국과 보다 활발한 수직적 특화 교역을 한 것으로 나타났다.

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This study examines the effect of free trade agreements on bilateral vertical specialization(VS) between Korea and its trading partners. Korea’s FTA trading partners are classified according to FTA liberalization and economic level. And this paper focuses on bilateral VS with goods that consist only of Korea final goods that are exported to and from the same country where the intermediate imports are sourced.
A bilateral VS variables are constructed using direct approach and input-output approach before being modeled in a gravity equation from 1998 to 2014. The techniques of pooled OLS, fixed effect, Hausman and Taylor, FE2SLS model were used.
The VS analysis shows that total bilateral VS increased for most of countries since the various Korea FTAs took effect, but the increase in the level of VS varies. US had the highest level of VS with Korea, followed by Singapore, ASEAN, EU. For the industry, VS is more active in high-tech industry, in particular in electrical and electronic equipment, chemicals and chemical products, etc. Also the empirical results show that FTAs influence positively on increased bilateral VS. Especially VS is estimated to be more increase if FTA trading partner maintains a high level of liberalization or is more of a developing country than a developed country.

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