중국의 재정 및 항목별 조세의 외생적 충격과 생산량 변동 = Output Impacts of Exogenous Shocks on Public Finance and Tax Policy in China

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Using quarterly data over the period 1999∼2016, this paper estimates the dynamic impacts of tax policy on output fluctuations in China. We use a SVAR model incorporating the restrictions of institutional information and quarterly dependence, suggested by Blanchard and Perotti (2002), and assume the China's macroeconomic economy consists of three variables: tax revenue, fiscal expenditure and gross domestic product (GDP). This study also examines the impact of tax revenue on GDP by using 3 different types of taxes, such as income tax, corporation tax and value added tax (VAT). The estimation results indicate that the impacts of structural tax revenue shock and structural fiscal expenditure shock on GDP provide positive and negative, respectively. However, the fluctuation of GDP to the shock of fiscal expenditure appears to affect only short-term, which persists 1 quarter. In addition, the impacts of income tax shock and VAT shock on output fluctuation are negative and continue 2 quarters, reflecting the tax distortions. However, the simultaneous effect of corporate tax shock on GDP is positive and persists 3 quarters. This is consistent with the results of some previous studies that show a rather complicated and indirectly impact of corporate tax shock on output fluctuation. An alternative explanation is that the impact of corporate tax shock on output fluctuation is not significant due to the high growth of China.

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