Permanent and Transitory Factors of the Business Cycle in the NAFTA Region

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

In this paper, we estimate a model that incorporates key features of business cycles, co-movement among economic variables and switching between regimes of expansion and recession, to aggregate quarterly data for the NAFTA region. Two common factors reflecting the permanent and transitory components of the business cycle in the region, along with the turning points from one regime to the other, were extracted from the data by using the Kalman filter and maximum likelihood estimation approach of Kim (1994).
Estimation results confirm that a typical aspect of business cycles are also observed (i.e., recessions are steeper and shorter than recoveries) in the region, and that both co-movement and that regime switching are found to be important features of the business cycle. The two common factors produce sensible representations of the trend and cycle, and the estimated turning points are in line with independently determined chronologies. It also turns out that the degree of synchronization between the NAFTA region and Korea, has significantly increased since the entry into force of the NAFTA.

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