투입-산출 분석을 이용한 에너지 전환 산업의 경제적 파급효과 분석 = A Study on the Economic Effects of the Energy Transition Industry in Korea Using Input-Output Analysis

국문 초록 (Abstract)

본 논문에서는 투입-산출(산업연관)분석을 이용하여 에너지 전환 산업에 대한 경제적 파급효과를 두 가지 시나리오를 적용하여 분석하였다. 먼저, 2022년 9월 기준 한국은행이 발표한 가장 최신 데이터인 2019년도 산업연관분석표를 적용하여 에너지 전환 산업의 경제적 파급효과(유발효과, 전후방 연쇄효과, 물가 파급효과, 공급지장효과)를 분석하고, 이와 더불어, 에너지 전환 정책이 본격적으로 시행되기 전 후 총 10개년도의 산업연관 분석표를 이용하여 에너지 전환 산업의 파급효과를 장기 연도별로 그 추이를 분석하고 시사점을 도출하였다. 먼저, 2019년도 단일 연도에 대한 분석 결과, 각종 유발 효과들의 수치가 녹색성장 산업에 대한 선행연구 분석 결과와 많은 부분이 유사한 것으로 분석됨으로써, 정부 정책의 연속성이 존재함을 확인하였다. 또한, 전후방 연쇄 효과 분석결과가 모두 1보다 큰 것으로 나와 에너지 전환 산업은 ‘중간 수요적 제조업’ 유형의 원재료 제조 산업으로 최종 분류되었으며, 에너지 전환 산업이 「전문 과학 및 기술 서비스」, 「도소매 및 상품 중개 서비스」, 「운송 서비스 산업」에 대해 가장 큰 생산 유발 효과가 있는 것으로 분석되어 연구개발과 관련된 산업과 밀접한 관련이 있는 것으로 추정되었다. 본 논문에서 제시한 장기 연도별 추이 분석 결과는, 유발효과를 포함한 모든 결과가 우상향하여 상승하는 것으로 나타남으로써 에너지 전환 산업에 대한 지속적인 정책적 투자가 국가 경제 발전에 긍정적으로 영향을 미친다는 것을 알 수 있다. 특히, 에너지 전환 산업은 연구개발 관련 산업의 공급 지장 효과가 타 산업과 비교하여 상당히 큰 것으로 분석됨으로써(51%∼60%), 이 산업에 대한 정부의 지속적인 연구개발 투자가 어떤 산업 분야보다 더 절실하다는 정책적 함의를 줄 수 있다.

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

In this study, the macroeconomic effect of the energy transition industry using input-output analysis was analyzed by applying two scenarios. First, we analyze the economic effects of the energy transition industry by applying the 2019 input-output table, which is the most recent data released by the Bank of Korea as of September 2022. In addition to the analysis at a single point in time in 2019, a long-term annual trend analysis was also attempted to suggest improvement plans for the problem of static data application, which has always been pointed out as a problem in input-output analysis.
This analysis used the input-output table for a total of 10 years, including the 5 years before the energy transition policy was implemented in earnest (2012-2016) and the 5 years after it was implemented (2017-2021). Long-term annual trends in the industry's effects were analyzed and implications were drawn in the study. At this time, the timeliness problem of the input-output table, which was pointed out as a problem in many existing studies using the industry-output table, was attempted to be solved through the application of the bi-proportional adjustment method (RAS). In other words, the input-output tables for 2020 and 2021, which was not announced by the Bank of Korea, used the results of applying and predicting the RAS algorithm to the 2019 input-output table.
First of all, as a result of the analysis of the single year of 2019, the figures of various inducing effects were analyzed to be similar in many respects to the results of previous research on the green growth industry. Therefore, it was confirmed that the industry related to the energy transition policy is not a completely new one, but is an industry linked to the previous government's energy-related policy, and that there is continuity in government policy.
In addition, as a result of the forward and backward linkage effect analysis, both forward and backward linkage effects were found to be greater than 1, and the industry was finally classified as an ‘intermediate demand manufacturing’ type raw material manufacturing industry. In particular, the forward linkage effect value was derived to be a much larger value compared to other fields, showing that the energy transition industry is an industry that is greatly influenced by the growth of other industries. Therefore, it provides policy implications that in order to maximize the effect in this field, it is necessary to establish a systematic development strategy that takes into account the interrelationship with related industries. In addition, in order to analyze the pure effect of the energy transition industry, the industry was exogenized and the effect of external changes was analyzed. As a result, the energy transition industry was found to affect professional science and technology services, wholesale and retail and product brokerage services, and transportation service industries. It was analyzed to have the greatest production inducement effect and is presumed to be closely related to industries related to research and development. Conversely, when the professional science and technology service industry was exogenized and the supply shortage effect was analyzed, the same results were obtained, proving the significance of the results. This provides policy implications that the energy transition industry is an emerging industry that absolutely requires specialized scientific and technological services, such as research and development, and needs to be fostered as a future growth engine industry through technological innovation.
The long-term annual trend analysis conducted in this study dynamizes various static effects that were applied only to a single year by applying them to the multi-year industrial structure. By doing this, we know that how the changes in a specific industrial sector can have an effect on the industrial structure changes. This would be a good attempt to determine what kind of prog...