2009 유럽의회 선거, 또 다시 이 순위 국내정치 경쟁장인가? = Another Second-Order National Contests? Analyzing the 2009 European Parliament Elections

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This article empirical analyzes electoral performance of national parties in the 2009 European Parliament(EP) elections. Specifically, it tests theoretical arguments raised by the model of 'second-order national contests' of EP elections. In the 'second-order national contests', European voters do not consider EP elections at the European level, but regard them as less important national political phenomena. According to the model, voters may punish their governing parties or vote sincerely with no fear of changing national political configurations. Using vote share difference of national parties between the 2009 EP elections and national elections just before them, this article empirically tests whether those characteristics are still prevalent in the 2009 EP elections. Results show that it is more reasonable to say that both right wing parties and small parties win the race. The governing parties were not losers after controlling for party size. Instead, large parties including both governing and major opposition parties in fact lost their vote shares. Results imply that even though certain characteristics of the 'second-order national contests' still prevailed in the 2009 EP elections, voters' punishment on governing parties was not a determinant factor of them.

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