Is International Leadership Changing Hands or Disappearing? China and the USA in Comparative Perspective

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

In recent years much attention has been given to the ongoing rise of China and its potential consequences for the extant international order. Less attention, however, has been given to the possibility of a US withdrawal from its role at the center of the order it helped to create. Since the election of Donald Trump, however, the prospect of a “leadership vacuum,” caused by American policies that seek to dismantle, weaken, or ignore various international institutions, has become an increasingly important issue. In this article we explore the historical nature of US hegemony and the factors that may be encouraging the Trump administration to abandon America’s leadership role. We also consider the factors that may inhibit China from offering an alternative.
Consequently, we argue that international order in the near future may be defined by a lack of leadership rather than a hegemonic transition.

참고문헌 (Reference)

1 Zoellick, Robert B., "“Whither China: From Membership to Responsibility?”Remarks to National Committee on U.S.-China Relations"

2 Xi Jinping, "“New Asian Security Concept for New Progress in Security Cooperation.”Remarks at the Fourth Summit of the Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia"

3 Beech, Hannah, "‘We Cannot Afford This’: Malaysia Pushes Back on China’s Big Projects"

4 Zhu, Y., "‘Performance Legitimacy’ and China’s Political Adaptation Strategy" 16 (16): 123-140, 2011

5 Bräutigam, Deborah, "‘Going Global in Groups’: Structural Transformation and China’s Special Economic Zones Overseas" 6 : 378-391, 2014

6 Ferguson, Niall, "‘Chimerica’ and the Global Asset Market Boom" 10 (10): 215-239, 2007

7 Organski, A. F. K., "World Politics" Knopf 1968

8 Gurtov, Melvin, "Will This Be China’s Century? A Skeptic’s View" Lynne Rienner 2013

9 Hemmer, Christopher, "Why Is There No NATO in Asia? Collective Identity, Regionalism, and the Origins of Multilateralism" 56 (56): 575-607, 2002

10 Wildau, Gabriel, "Who Will Fare Worse in a China-US Trade War?"

11 Subacchi, Paola, "Who Is in Control of the International Monetary System?" 86 (86): 665-680, 2010

12 Hopewell, Kristen, "When Market Fundamentalism and Industrial Policy Collide: The Tea Party and the US Export–Import Bank" 24 (24): 569-598, 2017

13 Blackwill, Robert D., "War by Other Means: Geoeconomics and Statecraft" Harvard University Press 2016

14 Hall, Peter A., "Varieties of Capitalism: The Institutional Foundations of Comparative Advantage" Oxford University Press 2001

15 Donnan, Shawn, "US Says China WTO Membership Was a Mistake"

16 Whitley, Richard, "US Capitalism: A Tarnished Model?" 23 (23): 11-22, 2009

17 Swanson, Ana, "U.S.-China Trade Deficit Hits Record, Fueling Trade Fight"

18 Naughton, Barry, "Two Crises, Different Outcomes: East Asia and Global Finance" Cornell University Press 110-134, 2015

19 Rajah, Roland, "Trump’s Trade War Pins Australia between a Rock and a Hard Place"

20 Stokes, Doug, "Trump, American Hegemony and the Future of the Liberal International Order" 94 (94): 133-150, 2018

21 Manson, Katrina, "Trump Replaces McMaster with Bolton in Day of Turmoil"

22 Landler, Mark, "Trump Hits China with Stiff Trade Measures"

23 Ip, Greg, "Trump Alienates Allies Needed for a Trade Fight with China"

24 Bradsher, Keith, "Trillions in Murky Investments Could Rock China’s Economy"

25 Holslag, Jonathan, "Trapped Giant: China’s Military Rise" Routledge 2017

26 Kim, Dong Jung, "Trading with the Enemy? The Futility of US Commercial Countermeasures against the Chinese Challenge" 30 (30): 289-308, 2017

27 Kindleberger, Charles P., "The World in Depression 1929–1939" University of California Press 1939

28 Babb, Sarah, "The Washington Consensus as Transnational Policy Paradigm:Its Origins, Trajectory and Likely Successor" 20 (20): 268-297, 2012

29 Skidmore, David, "The Unilateralist Temptation in American Foreign Policy" Routledge 2011

30 Layne, Christopher, "The US-Chinese Power Shift and the End of Pax Americana" 94 (94): 89-111, 2018

31 Van Langenhove, Luk, "The Transformation of Multilateralism Mode 1.0 to Mode 2.0" 1 (1): 263-270, 2010

32 Stiglitz, Joseph E., "The Three Trillion Dollar War" Boydell and Brewer 2008

33 Skocpol, Theda, "The Tea Party and the Remaking of Republican Conservatism" Oxford University Press 2016

34 Wohlforth, William. C., "The Stability of a Unipolar World" 24 (24): 5-41, 1999

35 Economy, Elizabeth C., "The River Runs Black: The Environmental Challenge to China’s Future" Cornell University Press 2004

36 Zhang, F., "The Rise of Chinese Exceptionalism in International Relations" 19 (19): 305-328, 2013

37 Posen, Adam S., "The Post-American World Economy" 97 (97): 28-38, 2018

38 Tsai, Kellee, "The Political Economy of State Capitalism and Shadow Banking in China" 51 (51): 55-97, 2015

39 McGregor, Richard, "The Party: The Secret World of China’s Communist Rulers" HarperCollins 2010

40 Dueck, Colin, "The Obama Doctrine: American Grand Strategy Today" Oxford University Press 2015

41 Bacevich, A. J., "The New American Militarism: How Americans Are Seduced By War" Oxford University Press 2005

42 Gowan, Peter, "The Global Gamble: Washington’s Faustian Bid for World Dominance" Verso 1999

43 Beeson, Mark, "The G-20 and International Economic Governance: Hegemony, Collectivism, or Both?" 15 (15): 67-86, 2009

44 Ikenberry, G. John, "The Future of the Liberal World Order" 90 (90): 56-68, 2011

45 Irwin, Douglas A., "The False Promise of Protectionism: Why Trump’s Trade Policy Could Backfire" 96 (96): 45-56, 2017

46 Ferguson, Niall, "The End of Chimerica" 14 (14): 1-26, 2011

47 Byman, Daniel, "The Dynamics of Coercion: American Foreign Policy and the Limits of Military Might" Cambridge University Press 2002

48 Prasad, Eswar S., "The Dollar Trap: How the U.S. Dollar Tightened Its Grip on Global Finance" Princeton University Press 2014

49 White, Hugh, "The China Choice: Why America Should Share Power" Black 2012

50 Halper, Stefan, "The Beijing Consensus: How China’s Authoritarian Model Will Dominate the Twenty-first Century" Basic Books 2010

51 Emmers, Ralf, "The ASEAN Regional Forum and Preventive Diplomacy: Built to Fail?" 7 (7): 44-60, 2011

52 Gaddis, John Lewis, "Strategies of Containment: A Critical Appraisal of Postwar American Security Policy" Oxford University Press 1982

53 Hsueh, Roselyn, "State Capitalism, Chinese-style: Strategic Value of Sectors, Sectoral Characteristics, and Globalization" 29 (29): 85-102, 2016

54 McNally, Christopher A., "Sino-Capitalism: China’s Reemergence and the International Political Economy" 64 (64): 741-776, 2012

55 Hsu, Sara, "Role of Informal Finance in China’s Continuing Economic Development" 45 (45): 28-45, 2011

56 Li, Shi, "Rising Inequality in China: Challenges to a Harmonious Society" Cambridge University Press 2013

57 Beeson, Mark, "Rethinking Regionalism: Europe and East Asia in Comparative Historical Perspective" 12 (12): 969-985, 2005

58 Beeson, Mark., "Rethinking Global Governance" Palgrave 2019

59 Baker, Andrew, "Restraining Regulatory Capture? Anglo-America, Crisis Politics and Trajectories of Change in Global Financial Governanc" 86 (86): 647-663, 2010

60 Summers, Lawrence H., "Reflections on Global Account Imbalances in Emerging Markets Reserve Accumulation"

61 Walter, Carl E., "Red Capitalism: The Fragile Financial Foundations of China’s Extraordinary Rise" Wiley 2011

62 Cox, Robert W., "Production, Power, and World Order: Social Forces in the Making of History" Columbia University Press 1987

63 Mastanduno, Michael, "Preserving the Unipolar Moment: Realist Theories and US Grand Strategy after the Cold War" 21 (21): 49-88, 1997

64 Acheson, Dean G., "Present at the Creation: My Years in the State Department" Hamilton 1970

65 Brødsgaard, Kjeld E, "Politics and Business Group Formation in China: The Party in Control?" 211 : 624-648, 2012

66 Heilmann, Sebastian, "Policy Experimentation in China’s Economic Rise" 43 (43): 1-26, 2007

67 Silver, Beverly J., "Polanyi’s ‘Double Movement’: The Belle Époques of British and US Hegemony Compared" 31 (31): 325-355, 2003

68 Ross, Robert S., "On the Fungibility of Economic Power: China’s Economic Rise and the East Asian Security Order" 25 (25): 302-327, 2019

69 Giles, Chris, "Mnuchin Backs Weaker Dollar in Break with Tradition"

70 Sturgeon, Timothy J., "Measuring Success in the Global Economy: International Trade, Industrial Upgrading, and Business Function Outsourcing in Global Value Chains" 18 (18): 1-35, 2009

71 Johnson, Chalmers, "MITI and the Japanese Miracle: The Growth of Industry Policy 1925–1975" Stanford University Press 1925

72 Haass, Richard N., "Liberal World Order, R.I.P"

73 Ikenberry, G. John, "Liberal Leviathan: The Origins, Crisis, and Transformation of the American World Order" Princeton University Press 2011

74 Mead, Walter Russell, "Kim Needs the Clout Nuclear Arms Bring to His Hermit Kingdom"

75 Xi Jinping, "Keynote Speech by Chinese President Xi Jinping at the APEC CEO Summit"

76 Pekkanen, Saadia M., "Japan and China in the World Political Economy" Routledge 11-28, 2005

77 Mann, Thomas E., "It’s Even Worse Than It Looks:How the American Constitutional System Collided with the New Politics of Extremism" Basic Books 2012

78 Walt, Stephen M., "Is America Addicted to War?"

79 Veeser, Cyrus, "Inventing Dollar Diplomacy: The Gilded-Age Origins of the Roosevelt Corollary to the Monroe Doctrine" 27 (27): 301-326, 2003

80 Waever, Ole, "International Leadership after the Demise of the Last Superpower:System Structure and Stewardship" 2 (2): 452-476, 2017

81 Lardy, Nicholas R., "Integrating China into the Global Economy" Brookings Institution 2002

82 Davenport, Coral, "How Trump’s Policy Decisions Undermine the Industries He Pledged to Help"

83 Brooks, Rosa, "How Everything Became War and the Military Became Everything:Tales from the Pentagon" Simon & Schuster 2017

84 Shen, Simon, "How China’s ‘Belt and Road’ Compares to the Marshall Plan"

85 Strauss, Delphine, "Hidden Value in Phones Could ‘Cut US Trade Deficit in Half"

86 Agnew, John, "Hegemony: The New Shape of Global Power" Philadelphia:Temple University Press 2005

87 Beeson, Mark, "Hegemonic Instability and East Asia:Contradictions, Crises and US Power" 7 (7): 479-495, 2010

88 Beeson, Mark, "Handbook of the International Political Economy of China" Edward Elgar 345-360, 2019

89 Rodrik, Dani, "Governance in a Globalizing World" Brookings Institution 347-365, 2000

90 Friedberg, Aaron L, "Globalisation and Chinese Grand Strategy" 60 (60): 7-40, 2018

91 Athukorala, Prema-chandra, "Global Production Sharing and Sino–US Trade Relations" 17 (17): 39-56, 2009

92 Weiss, Thomas G., "Global Governance: Why? What? Whither?" Polity 2013

93 Lamy, Pascal, "Global Governance: From Theory to Practice" 15 (15): 721-728, 2012

94 Beeson, Mark, "Geoeconomics with Chinese Characteristics: The BRI and China’s Evolving Grand Strategy" 6 (6): 240-256, 2018

95 Vermeiren, Mattias, "Foreign Exchange Accumulation and the Entrapment of Chinese Monetary Power: Towards a Balanced Growth Regime?" 18 (18): 680-714, 2013

96 Breslin, Shaun, "Financial Transitions in the PRC: Banking on the State?" 35 (35): 996-1013, 2014

97 Luttwak, Edward N., "Endangered American Dream: How to Stop the United States from Becoming a Third-World Country and How to Win the Geo-economic Struggle for Industrial Supremacy" Simon & Schuster 1993

98 Wade, Robert, "Emerging World Order? From Multipolarity to Multilateralism in the G20, the World Bank, and the IMF" 39 (39): 347-378, 2011

99 Mastanduno, Michael, "Economics and Security in Statecraft and Scholarship" 52 (52): 825-854, 1998

100 Yang, Dali L., "Economic Transformation and Its Political Discontents in China:Authoritarianism, Unequal Growth, and the Dilemmas of Political Development" 9 : 143-164, 2006

101 Baldwin, David A., "Economic Statecraft" Princeton University Press 1985

102 Mudde, Cas, "Don’t Be Fooled. The Midterms Were Not a Bad Night for Trump"

103 Colvin, Jill, "Donald Trump Says He Doesn’t Blame China for Taking Advantage of America"

104 Kirshner, Jonathan, "Dollar Primacy and American Power: What’s at Stake?" 15 (15): 418-438, 2008

105 Green, Joshua, "Devil’s Bargain: Steve Bannon, Donald Trump, and the Storming of the Presidency" Penguin 2017

106 Allison, Graham, "Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?" Houghton Mifflin Harcourt 2017

107 Kupchan, Charles A., "Dead Center: The Demise of Liberal Internationalism in the United States" 32 (32): 7-44, 2007

108 Mark Beeson, "DEVELOPMENTAL STATES IN EAST ASIA: A COMPARISON OF THE JAPANESE AND CHINESE EXPERIENCES" 극동문제연구소 33 (33): 5-39, 2009

109 Huang, Yukon, "Cracking the China Conundrum: Why Conventional Economic Wisdom Is Wrong" Oxford University Press 2017

110 Weldes, Juttes, "Constructing National Interests" University of Minnesota Press 1996

111 Chen, Te-Ping, "China’s Xi Jinping Seizes Role as Leader on Globalization"

112 Deng, Yong, "China’s Struggle for Status: The Realignment of International Relations" Cambridge University Press 2008

113 Wang, Jisi, "China’s Search for a Grand Strategy" 90 (90): 68-79, 2011

114 Scissors, Derek, "China’s SOE Sector Is Bigger Than Some Would Have Us Think"

115 Pei, Minxin, "China’s Moment of Truth"

116 Wong, Chun Han, "China’s Communist Party Proposal Sets Stage for Xi to Hold onto Power"

117 Lake, Spencer, "China’s Bond Market Quietly Delivers Revolution in Liberalisation"

118 Miller, Tom, "China’s Asian Dream: Empire Building along the New Silk Road" Zed Books 2017

119 Etzioni, Amitai, "China—A Reluctant Global Power"

120 Callahan, William A., "China: The Pessoptimist Nation" Oxford University Press 2010

121 Beeson, Mark, "China, Japan and Regional Leadership in East Asia" Edward Elgar 229-246, 2008

122 Page, Jeremy, "China, Finally, Clamps down on North Korea Trade—and the Impact Is Stinging"

123 Ren, Xiao, "China as an Institution-builder: The Case of the AIIB" 29 (29): 435-442, 2016

124 Bland, Ben, "China Wields Power with Boycott Diplomacy"

125 Bradsher, Keith, "China Taps the Brakes on Its Global Push for Influence"

126 Maley, Paul, "China Swiftly Seals Its Supremacy in the South China Sea"

127 Chin, Josh, "China Spends More on Domestic Security as Xi’s Powers Grow"

128 Shambaugh, David, "China Goes Global: The Partial Power" Oxford University Press 2013

129 Chan, Gerald, "China Engages Global Governance:A New World Order in the Making?" Routledge 2012

130 Hao, Qi, "China Debates the ‘New Type of Great Power Relations.’" 8 (8): 349-370, 2015

131 Mayeda, Andrew, "China Could Slow US Treasury Purchases to Counter Trump’s Tariffs"

132 Browne, Andrew, "China Builds Bridges and Highways while the U.S. Mouths Slogans"

133 Beeson, Mark, "Can China Lead?" 34 (34): 235-252, 2013

134 Beeson, Mark, "Can ASEAN Cope with China?" 35 (35): 5-28, 2015

135 Green, Michael J., "By More Than Providence: Grand Strategy and American Power in the Asia Pacific since 1783" Columbia University Press 1783

136 Lieberthal, Kenneth G., "Bureaucracy, Politics, and Decision Making in Post-Mao China" University of California Press 1-30, 1992

137 Nye, Joseph S., "Bound to Lead: The Changing Nature of American Power" Basic Books 1990

138 Donnan, Shawn, "Boost for China as It Joins IMF Elite"

139 Phillips, Tom, "Beijing Rejects Tribunal’s Ruling in South China Sea Case"

140 Lee, Justina., "As China’s Doors Open, Foreign Investors Worry about Exits"

141 Szamosszegi, Andrew, "An Analysis of State-Owned Enterprises and State Capitalism in China" Capital Trade 2011

142 Clinton, Hillary, "America’s Pacific Century"

143 Pierson, Paul, "American Hybrid: Donald Trump and the Strange Merger of Populism and Plutocracy" 68 : S105-S119, 2017

144 Beeson, Mark, "Alternative Realities: Explaining Security in the Asia-Pacific" 43 (43): 516-533, 2017

145 Wade, Robert, "After the Crisis: Industrial Policy and the Developmental State in Low-Income Countries" 1 (1): 150-161, 2010

146 Bräutigam, Deborah, "African Shenzhen: China’s Special Economic Zones in Africa" 49 (49): 27-54, 2011

147 Peck, Jamie, "A Variety of Capitalism . . . with Chinese Characteristics?" 13 (13): 357-396, 2013

148 Smith, Noah, "A Strong Dollar Isn’t That Great for America"