한국의 명목 및 실질임금의 유연성 정도와 성격에 대하여 = The Nature and Extent of Nominal and Real Wage Flexibility in Korea

국문 초록 (Abstract)

한국노동패널 자료에 나타난 개인임금 자료를 1998년부터 2012년 기간에 대해 분석한 결과 명목임금은 매우 유연한 것으로 나타났다. 프로빗 분석 결과 명목임금이 삭감될 확률은 인플레이션이 낮을수록 그리고 실업률이 높을수록 높게 나타났으며, 다양한 경제·인구학적 집단에 따라 다르게 나타났다. 한편 고용노동부의 사업체 조사와 한국노동패널 조사 자료를 비교·분석한 결과 실질임금은 매우 경기순행적이며, 그 경기변동 상 유연성은 인플레이션의 역할이라기보다는 명목임금 자체가 경기순행적이기 때문인 것으로 나타났다. 이상의 발견들은 임금경직성을 예측하거나 혹은 임금경직성 가정에 의존하여 실업변동을 설명하고자 하는 모형들의 현실 설명력을 반감시킨다. 추가적으로 본고는 임금 및 근로시간 변수에 나타난 측정오차의 문제를 다루고 있다.

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Longitudinal analysis of individual wage data received from the Korea Labor and Income Panel Survey (KLIPS) for the 1998-2012 period reveals that nominal wage reductions are prevailing among job stayers. It is also found that the probability of nominal wage cut is higher in the period of lower inflation or higher unemployment, and affected by various individual or group characteristics. Additional analysis of two establishment-based average wage series and the KLIPS shows that real wages are substantially procyclical, which is attributed to the strong procyclicality of nominal wages rather than countercyclicality of inflation. Current findings defy wage-rigidity-based explanations of unemployment fluctuations or models that predict wage rigidity, inlcluding segmented labor market hypotheses.

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