반복(Echoes)에서 선택(Choices)으로 = 불가능한 조건 하에서 한반도 냉전해체의 문을 연 지도자들의 선택

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This paper elucidates, first, why different US administations have repeatedly “echoed” regime change, pressure, and sanctions on North Korea rather than dialogue and compromise with regard to denuclearization of North Korea and peace building in the Korean Peninsula; then, traces how the three leaders--Moon Jae In, Donald Trump, and Kim Jong Un--have made new policy “choices” since the end of 2017, and collaborated to open the dismantling of the Cold War in the Korean Peninsula through Inter-Korean and US-North Korea summit meetings. First, I will reveal the myth of North Korean “collapsism” and explain why the North Korean regime has shown exceptional survivability against the prediction of the collapsists. Second, I will explore the motivation of the North Korean regime to develop nuclear weapons since the end of the Cold War and the process of completing the development of nuclear weapons and long range missiles by the end of 2017. Third, I will explain why the prescription of collapsists such as international sanctions and pressures on North Korea have not worked and why Obama’s “strategic patience” as a collapsism in disguise did not bring the North Korean regime to collapse but, on the contrary, gave the North Koreans ample time to develop nuclear weapons. Fourth, I will discuss how “possibilist” policies and theories such as Wang Yi’s Two Track Approach and Perry’s “Three Nos” policy have emerged as North Korea has been completing the development of its nuclear program and heightened the imminent danger of another Korean War. Finally, I will explore how the three political leaders of denuclearization and peace building in the Korean Peninsula-- Moon Jae In, Donald Trump, and Kim Jong Un--have made policy “choices” of change and found clues to solving the problem of breaking down the last remaining Cold War legacy in the Korean Peninsula.

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