한국의 가계저축률 하락 요인에 관한 연구 = Analysis of Decreasing Saving Rate in Korea

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Compared to increase in US saving rate due to the financial crisis, the issue of decreasing saving rate in Korea is recently getting more important. However, the issue, why the saving rate in Korea has dropped so rapidly compared to the other countries appears to get relatively little attention in Korea and relatively a few studies have been done in a rigorous way. One of the recent studies from the Bank of Korea implies that the saving rate in Korea would be increased due to the expansion of the precautionary saving motive but its empirical evidence appears to be insufficient. This study synthetically analyses the reasons of decreasing saving rate using micro and macro data in Korea. The results of time series analysis show that the main reasons for the decreasing saving rates are low income growth rate, increasing property price, expansion of social security, increasing household debt, low interest rate, change of consumption pattern in Korea. Using the Korean household panel data, KLIPS, we also find that the change in saving motives after the 1997 financial crisis appears to have a relation with the structural factor of decreasing saving rate. The quantile regression results that we used here show that the realized saving rate due to the precautionary saving motive among other motives is the lowest one. Our results imply that the expansion of uncertainty around the society in Korea after the 1997 financial crisis could be one of the major factor for this change.

참고문헌 (Reference)

1 박대근, "한국의 저축률 추이에 관한 연구: Synthetic cohort 분석" 조세연구원 1997

2 한국은행, "최근의 저축률추이와 시사점" 한국은행 경제통계국 2005

3 변혜원, "최근의 소비부진과 부의 효과" KIRI Weekly 2-13, 2009

4 정지만, "저축에 대한 이론적 고찰 및 저축증대방안" 상명대학교 17 : 1-, 2004

5 한국은행, "저축률의 국제비교와 평가"

6 박종규, "우리나라의 저축률 하락: 거시적 구조변화와 미시적 요인" 조세연구원 7 (7): 94-140, 2000

7 정지만, "우리나라 저축행태분석" 상명대학교 4 : 1-24, 1999

8 유경원, "우리나라 가계저축률 격차의 발생원인 분석" 한국경제연구학회 22 : 103-135, 2008

9 유경원, "우리나라 가계금융자산 축적 부진의 원인과 시사점" 보험연구원 2010

10 한국은행, "금리와 개인저축률간의 관계" mimeo 2007

11 임병인, "국민 ∙ 퇴직 ∙ 개인연금의 소득계층별 노후소득보장 효과" 보험연구원 16 (16): 89-121, 2005

12 임경묵, "공적연금이 가계저축에 미치는 영향, 인구구조 고령화의 경제적 영향과 대응과제(Ⅰ)"

13 송승주, "개인저축률과 거시경제변수간 관계분석" 한국은행 금융경제연구원 377 : 1-62, 2009

14 Deaton A, "Understanding consumption" Oxford University Press 1992

15 유경원, "Precautionary behavior, migrant networks, and household consumption decisions: An empirical analysis using household panel data from rural China" MIT Press 89 (89): 534-551, 200708

16 Cooper, R, "Living with Global Imbalances: a Contrarian View" Institute for International Economics 2005

17 Browning, M, "Household saving: Micro theories and micro facts" 34 : 1797-1855, 1996

18 Devaney, S, "Household Savings Motives" 41 (41): 174-186, 2007

19 Saunders, M, "Fiscal privilege and financial assets: some distributional effects" 9 (9): 51-69, 1988

20 Peach, R, "A Nation of Spendthrifts? An Analysis of Trends in Personal and Gross Saving" FRB of New York 6 (6): 1-6, 2000

21 윤상하, "50대 이후 저축률 상승의 배경과 영향"