Loss Aversion and Risk Taking in North Korea’s Militant Strategy, 1967–1968

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Studies of North Korean foreign policy are increasingly turning to the thesis advanced by prospect theory of loss aversion and reference dependence to explain its risk taking. Most of these studies focus on the post-1990s as the genesis of North Korea’s risk-prone behavior. I show that Pyongyang has operated from a frame of losses since the late 1960s, due to the parallel decline of ideological unity in Soviet–North Korean and Sino–North Korean relations. In particular, from 1967 to 1968, North Korea perceived both allies to be more focused on countering each other than on jointly opposing the United States. Consequently, Pyongyang for the first time saw both Moscow and Beijing as doubtful assets in its bid for hegemonic unification. North Korea therefore stressed the role of small countries in the revolutionary struggle and launched the most violent phase of its militant strategy, emphasizing the US threat as the common enemy. The strategy was therefore in part a function of fear rather than a desire for expansion.

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Studies of North Korean foreign policy are increasingly turning to the thesis advanced by prospect theory of loss aversion and reference dependence to explain its risk taking. Most of these studies focus on the post-1990s as the genesis of North Korea’s risk-prone behavior. I show that Pyongyang has operated from a frame of losses since the late 1960s, due to the parallel decline of ideological unity in Soviet–North Korean and Sino–North Korean relations. In particular, from 1967 to 1968, North Korea perceived both allies to be more focused on countering each other than on jointly opposing the United States. Consequently, Pyongyang for the first time saw both Moscow and Beijing as doubtful assets in its bid for hegemonic unification. North Korea therefore stressed the role of small countries in the revolutionary struggle and launched the most violent phase of its militant strategy, emphasizing the US threat as the common enemy. The strategy was therefore in part a function of fear rather than a desire for expansion.

참고문헌 (Reference)

1 황지환, "전망이론을 통해 본 북한의 핵 정책 변화: 제 1, 2차 북한 핵 위기의 분석" 한국국제정치학회 46 (46): 79-101, 2006

2 Dillion, Linda D., "Who Was the Principal Enemy? Shifts in Chinese Perceptions of the Two Superpowers, 1968–69" 17 (17): 456-473, 1977

3 Hong, Kyudok, "Unequal Partners: ROK-U.S. Relations During the Vietnam War" University of South Carolina 1991

4 Armstrong, Charles, "Tyranny of the Weak: North Korea and the World, 1950–1992" Cornell University Press 1992

5 Radchenko, Sergey, "Two Suns in the Heavens: The Sino-Soviet Struggle for Supremacy, 1962–1967" WoodrowWilson Center Press 2009

6 Lerner, Mitchell, "This Warmongering State of Mind: New Materials on the Korean Crisis of 1968" Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars 2012

7 Radchenko, Sergey, "The Soviet Union and the Seizure of the USS Pueblo: Evidence from Russian Archives" Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars 2005

8 Choi, Myeong-hae, "The Sino–North Korean alliance" Olum 2008

9 Shin, Jong-Dae, "The Sino–North Korean Alliance and Kim Il Sung’s Military Adventurism" Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars 2012

10 Lawson, Eugene, "The Sino-Vietnamese Conflict" Praeger 1984

11 Lüthi, Lorenz, "The Sino-Soviet Split: Cold War in the Communist World" Princeton University Press 2008

12 Koh, B. C., "The Pueblo Incident in Perspective" 9 (9): 264-280, 1969

13 Lee, Jung Hoo, "The Park Chung Hee Era: The Transformation of South Korea" Harvard University Press 430-456, 2011

14 Lee, Min Yong, "The Park Chung Hee Era: The Transformation of South Korea" Harvard University Press 403-429, 2011

15 Lumbers, Michael, "The Irony of Vietnam: The Johnson Administration’s Tentative Bridge Building to China, 1965–1966" 6 (6): 69-111, 2004

16 Buzo, Adrian, "The Guerilla Dynasty" Westview Press 1999

17 Berejikian, Jefferey D., "The Gains Debate: Framing State Choice" 91 (91): 789-805, 1997

18 Gurtov, Melvin, "The Foreign Ministry and Foreign Affairs in China’s Cultural Revolution" Rand Corporation 1969

19 Kim, Hakjoon, "The Domestic Politics of Korean Unification: Debates on the North in the South, 1948–2008" Jinmoondang 2010

20 Cheng Xiaohe, "THE EVOLUTION OF SINO-NORTH KOREAN RELATIONS IN THE 1960s" 극동문제연구소 34 (34): 173-199, 2010

21 Hamm, Taik-young, "State Power and Armament of the Two Koreas: A Case Study" University of Michigan 1996

22 Kim, Se Jin, "South Korea’s Involvement in Vietnam and Its Economic and Political Impact" 10 (10): 519-532, 1970

23 Rogers, Frank E., "Sino-American Relations and the Vietnam War" (66) : 293-314, 1976

24 Haslam, Jonathan, "Russia’s Cold War" Yale University Press 2011

25 Dongsoo Kim, "Risk-Taking or Risk-Aversive: Understanding North Korea’s Foreign Policy of Brinkmanship" 한국학술연구원 42 (42): 461-489, 2011

26 Kim Il-sung, "Revolution and Socialist Construction in Korea: Selected Writings of Kim Il Sung" International Publishers 1971

27 Van Ness, Peter, "Revolution and Chinese Foreign Policy: Peking’s Support for Wars of National Liberation" University of California Press 1972

28 Jein Do, "Reversing friends and enemies" 북한대학원대학교 2013

29 Hong, Seuk-ryule, "Reunification and Civil Society Issues in South Korea: The Debates and Social Movement for Reunification During the April Revolution Period, 1960–1961" 61 (61): 1237-1257, 2002

30 Vertzberger, Yaacov, "Rethinking and Reconceptualizing Risk in Foreign Policy Decision Making: A Sociocognitive Approach" 16 (16): 347-380, 1995

31 Koo, Hagen, "Reassessing the Park Chung Hee Era, 1961–1979" University of Washington Press 2011

32 Woo, Jung-en, "Race to the Swift: State and Finance in Korean Industrialization" Columbia University Press 1990

33 Chung, Chin W., "Pyongyang Between Peking and Moscow" University of Alabama Press 1978

34 Kahneman, Daniel, "Prospect Theory—An Analysis of Decision Making Under Risk" 47 (47): 263-291, 1979

35 Levy, Jack, "Prospect Theory, Rational Choice, and International Relations" 41 (41): 87-112, 1997

36 Brands, Hal, "Progress Unseen: U.S. Arms Control Policy and the Origins of Détente, 1963–1968" 39 (39): 253-285, 2006

37 Kihl, Young Whan, "Politics and Policies in Divided Korea: Regimes in Contest" Westview Press 1984

38 Jervis, Robert, "Political Implications of Loss Aversion" 13 (13): 187-204, 1992

39 Niu, Jun, "On the Eve of the Left Turn in China’s Foreign Policy" Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars 2005

40 Cho, Soon Sung, "North and South Korea: Stepped-Up Aggression and the Search for New Security" 9 (9): 29-39, 1969

41 Chung, Joseph, "North Korea’s Seven Year Plan: Economic Performance and Reforms" 12 (12): 527-545, 1972

42 Szalontai, Balázs, "North Korea’s Efforts to Acquire Nuclear Technology and Nuclear Weapons: Evidence from Russian and Hungarian Archives" Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars 2006

43 Kim Il-sung, "North Korean Year Book, 1966–1967" Korean Central News Agency 1-5, 1967

44 Schaefer, Bernd, "North Korean Adventurism and China’s Long Shadow" Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars 2004

45 Kwon, Heonik, "North Korea: Beyond Charismatic Politics" Rowman and Littlefield 2012

46 Person, James, "New Evidence on North Korea" Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars 2010

47 Lerner, Mitchell, "Mostly Propaganda in Nature: Kim Il Sung, the Juche Ideology, and the Second Korean War" Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars 2010

48 Li, Mingjiang, "Mao’s China and the Sino-Soviet Split: Ideological Dilemma" Routledge 2012

49 Chen, Jian, "Mao’s China and the Cold War" University of North Carolina Press 2001

50 Person, James, "Limits of the Lips and Teeth Alliance: New Evidence on Sino-DPRK Relations, 1955–1984" Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars 2009

51 Rodong Sinmun, "Let Us Crush the New War Machinations of American Imperialism"

52 Lim, Jae-Cheon, "Kim Jong Il’s Leadership of North Korea" Routledge 2009

53 Suh, Dae-sook, "Kim Il Sung: The North Korean Leader" Columbia University Press 1988

54 Szalontai, Balázs, "Kim Il Sung in the Khrushchev Era: Soviet-DPRK Relations and the Roots of North Korean Despotism, 1953–1964" Woodrow Wilson Center Press 2005

55 Kim Il-sung, "Kim Il Sung Works, no. 21" Foreign Language Publishing House 334-340, 1985

56 Kang, David, "International Relations Theory and the Second Korean War" 47 (47): 301-324, 2003

57 Szalontai, Balázs, "In the Shadow of Vietnam: A New Look at North Korea’s Militant Strategy, 1962–1970" 14 (14): 122-166, 2012

58 Yi, Kil J., "In Search of Panacea: Japan-Korea Rapprochement and America’s Far Eastern Problems" 71 (71): 633-662, 2002

59 Cha, Victor, "Hawk Engagement and Preventive Defense on the Korean Peninsula" 27 (27): 40-78, 2002

60 마상윤, "From “March North” to Nation-Building: The Interplay of U.S. Policy and South Korean Politics during the Early 1960s" 유네스코한국위원회 49 (49): 9-36, 2009

61 Gurtov, Melvin, "From Korea to Vietnam: The Origins and Mindset of Postwar U.S. Interventionism" 8 (8): 1-16, 2010

62 황지환, "Face-Saving, Reference Point, and North Korea’s Strategic Assessments" 한국국제정치학회 49 (49): 55-75, 2009

63 Goldstein, Avery, "Discounting the Free Ride: Alliances and Security in the Postwar World" 49 (49): 39-71, 1995

64 Ostermann, Christian, "Crisis and Confrontation on the Korean Peninsula, 1968–1969" Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars 2011

65 Goh, Evelyn, "Constructing the U.S. Rapprochement with China, 1961–1974: From “Red Menace” to “Tacit Ally”" Cambridge University Press 2005

66 Ministry of Unification, "Congresses of the Korean Workers’ Party" Kukt’ot’ongilwŏn 1980

67 Scalapino, Robert, "Communism in Korea: Part I The Movement" University of California Press 1972

68 Khoo, Nicholas, "Collateral Damage: Sino-Soviet Rivalry and the Termination of the Sino-Vietnamese Alliance, 1964–1979" Columbia University Press 2011

69 Shimotomai, Nobuo, "Cold War in East Asia 1945–1991" Woodrow Wilson Center Press 2011

70 "Chinese Government Statement Condemns U.S. Imperialism’s Crime of Aggression" (34) : 6-, 1968

71 Shen Zhihua, "China and the Post-War Reconstruction of North Korea, 1953–1961" Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars 2012

72 Park, Tae-Gyun, "Beyond the Myth: Reassessing the Security Crisis on the Korean Peninsula During the Mid-1960s" 82 (82): 93-110, 2009

73 Hershberg, James, "Behind the Bamboo Curtain: China, Vietnam, and the World Beyond Asia" Stanford University Press 193-258, 2006

74 Levy, Jack, "An Introduction to Prospect Theory" 13 (13): 171-186, 1992

75 Park, Tae-Gyun, "An Ally and Empire: Two Myths of South Korea–United States Relations, 1945–1980" Academy of Korean Studies Press 2012

76 Snyder, Glenn, "Alliance Politics" Cornell University Press 2007

77 Shen Zhihua, "After Leaning to One Side: China and Its Allies in the Cold War" Woodrow Wilson Center Press 2011

78 Harding, Harry, "A Fragile Relationship: The United States and China Since 1972" Brookings Institution 1992

79 Lerner, Mitchell, "A Failure of Perception: Lyndon Johnson, North Korean Ideology, and the Pueblo Incident" 25 (25): 647-675, 2001

80 Zubok, Vladislav, "A Failed Empire: The Soviet Union and the Cold War from Stalin to Gorbachev" University of North Carolina Press 2007