Post Kyoto 대응과 저탄소 사회 이행 : 국제기후대응변과 저화탄소 사협회 이상행 동향과 대응전략(1) = Insights from the Decision-Making Processes of the Global Climate Change Regime on the Future Negotiation Strategies (1)

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

In the seventeenth Conference of the Parties (COP 17) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) held in Durban, South Africa, all Parties agreed to establish the Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action (ADP) whose work is developing a new climate regime effective after 2020 (Post-2020). The ADP is expected to make a recommendation for a protocol, another legal instrument or an agreed outcome with legal force under the Convention (henceforth ‘2015 Agreement’) applicable to all Parties for adoption by the COP 21 held in Paris, France. The ADP, initiating its work in 2012, continued to have four meetings in 2014 to make further elaborations with respect to elements included in the 2015 Agreement. While the Kyoto Protocol has regulated mitigation commitments of Annex I Parties as a central element, the Post-2020 regime is supposed to include mitigation, adaptation, finance, technology development and transfer, capacity building, and transparency of action and support applicable to all Parties in a balanced manner. Furthermore, in order to avoid each Party’s mitigation commitment being assigned by the Convention (top-down approach) as in the Kyoto Protocol, the COP 19 further decided that all Parties communicate their intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs), taking into account each Party’s capabilities and circumstances (bottom-up approach) in the Post-2020 regime. As the 2015 Agreement is expected to be adopted in the COP 21, the Parties have discussed information lists of INDCs as well as structure and elements of the Agreement during the ADP meetings in 2014. This study comprehensively observes and analyzes available resources including documents and discussion from the ADP meetings, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report, and Oranization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) reports pertaining to further elaboration of structure and elements of the 2015 Agreement, particularly focusing on INDCs, mitigation and adaptation. From those analyses, we speculated what will be discussed at the meetings in 2015 and suggested how South Korea could respond at the meetings. Common but Differentiated Responsibilities and Respective Capabilities (CBDR-RC), one of the most critical principles of the Convention, has still been an important issue for developing the Post-2020 regime. We proposed a technical measure for ‘differentiation’ to be applied in the regime as a negotiation strategy of South Korea. In addition, we analyzed negotiation positions and strategies of the United States and China who are responsible for almost half of the global greenhouse gas emissions and proposed response strategies for South Korea such as how to invite them to the Post-2020 regime. In terms of mitigation, we examined the Parties’ views on long-term mitigation contributions discussed with utmost importance in not only domestic but also international contexts and proposed confrontation strategies about them. We also speculated a legal structure of the 2015 Agreement text and suggested responses of South Korea for this matter. In terms of adaptation, considering the increasing demands on political parity with mitigation in the Post-2020 regime, we investigated the discussion trends of adaptation within the Convention. Regarding adaptation, we especially analyzed its relationship with mitigation and the matters of finance including Green Climate Fund and suggested response strategies for South Korea based on the analyses. A decision, “Lima Call for Climate Action,” was adopted in the COP 20 at Lima. Since consensus was reached with respect to the scope, schedule and procedure of INDCs, the COP 20 could be positively remembered for maintaining the momentum for the Post-2020 discussion and the possibility of further consensus on the 2015 Agreement. However, many contested components that can be included in the INDCs decision text were deferred to 2015 Agreement discussion, and the Parties identified significant gaps in views regarding some critical issues of the 2015 Agreement. In this regard, it is not highly optimistic that the Parties will reach a consensus of the 2015 Agreement in the COP 21 at Paris. Based on the analyses of the negotiation positions of the critical Parties including the United States and China and the prospect of the 2015 Agreement, we need multidirectional strategies and efforts for the 2015 Agreement with the preparation of INDCs.