Which incumbents are likely to be re-elected in the 8th State Duma election? Existing studies on the elite circulation of parliament have mainly measured the range of circulation by the turnover ratio of incumbent or the entry ratio of freshmen. Howev...
Which incumbents are likely to be re-elected in the 8th State Duma election? Existing studies on the elite circulation of parliament have mainly measured the range of circulation by the turnover ratio of incumbent or the entry ratio of freshmen. However, these studies do not explain who maintains political survival and has continuity within the structure of the parliament elite. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the factors affecting the re-election of the 7th State Duma incumbent. The probability of re-election varies depending on the elite type, representative type, and term of incumbent. Former professional officials, former corporate managers, district members, multi-term incumbent were more likely to be re-elected. However, when analyzed by dividing into district and proportional representation members, the effects of each variable were different. In the case of district members, personal factors such as elite types affect re-election, while in the case of proportional representation factors, term and party factor affect it. The significance of this study is that it has revealed the effect of characteristics of incumbent on re-election, beyond comparing the ratio of personnel composition in research on the elite circulation of the Russian parliament.