통화정책과 주택가격의 동학적 관계: SVAR모형에 의한 분석 = Dynamic Relationship between Monetary Policy and House Prices in Korea: An Analysis Using Structural VAR Model

국문 초록 (Abstract)

한국의 월별 거시변수 자료를 이용하여 구조형 자기회귀모형을 추정한 결과, 긴축적 통화정책이 주택가격과 산업생산을 하락시키는 것으로 나타나 통화정책의 효과가 주택시장을 통해 전달되는 경로의 존재를 확인할 수 있었다. 그러나 금리가 주택가격의 변동에 기여하는 정도는 크지 않고 주택가격은 산업생산과 석유가격 등 실물 부문의 충격을 더 크게 받고 있다는 점도 발견하였다. 금리의 주택가격에 대한 충격반응을 보면 중앙은행은 주택가격 상승에 대해 긴축 정책으로 대응하지 않고 있는 것으로 보인다. 이는 중앙은행의 통화정책 기조에 주택가격 변동이 크게 반영되고 있지 않음을 시사한다.

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Estimation results from an SVAR model using monthly macro data suggest that a contractionary monetary policy results in a decline in industrial production and house prices. This indicates the existence of the asset effect of monetary policy through housing markets. The contribution of interest rates to the variation of house prices, however, is not large. The house prices are more influenced by shocks in real sector such as industrial production and oil prices than interest rates. It is also noteworthy that the monetary authority does not respond in a contractionary way to a rise in house prices. It suggests that the monetary policy does not actively pursue the stabilization of house prices.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• Ⅰ. 서론
• Ⅱ. 선행연구
• Ⅲ. 분석모형
• Ⅳ. 실증분석
• Ⅴ. 결론
• 참고문헌
• Abstract

참고문헌 (Reference)

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