미중 패권전쟁의 충분조건 분석: 결정론적 구조주의 한계 보완을 위한 행위적 촉발요인 추적

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

China has stepped up its international clout while putting the “Chinese Dream” at the forefront. The U.S. regards China’s behavior of revising the U.S-led hegemonic order. As China, an emerging great power, narrows the power gap with the U.S., status-quo hegemon, the international structure has been shifting, leading to a “Thucydides’s trap.” Power transition theorists and offensive realists suggest that structural pressure from power transition makes hegemonic war inevitable. If then, how can the absence of hegemonic war between the U.S. and China be explained in the present day despite a growing structural pressure? Judging from all wars in history, however, the structural cause alone did not lead to war. Friction turns out to escalate into war only when there is the catalyst as a triggering factor to kindle a fire in a powder keg. Catalytic causes are led by agents, not structure. Each of a structural cause and catalytic causes serves as a necessary condition for hegemonic war. Taken together, they become a sufficient condition for this war. Clash of the U.S. and China, both strategic and operational levels, serves as a mechanism to create catalytic causes for hegemonic war. In the beginning, this confrontation remained at a strategic level, but it is being shifted into an operational level’s confrontation. Thus, a black hole of war is approaching. Despite the fact, a level of confrontation is under the boundary of the agents’ oversight rather than an uncontrollable trap. Accordingly, if there are tremendous efforts for crisis management, these strategic and operational catalysts can be mitigated, and thus, the outbreak of hegemonic war could be constrained. South Korea also should pay more attention to analyzing catalytic causes of hegemonic war to develop the most optimal policy towards interest maximization.

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