태풍 강도와 발생지역의 상관성 연구 : ENSO 발달과 소멸의 영향 = On the Relationship between Typhoon Intensity and Formation Region: Effect of developing and decaying ENSO

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This study investigates the influence of the developing and decaying El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the relation between typhoon intensity and its formation. From the long-term data of 57 years (1950~2006), we first defined the developing El Niño years and the neutral years. During the developing El Niño years, the typhoon intensity has a strong relationship with formation region of the tropical cyclone, which results in an increase of the accumulated cyclone energy and intensity of energy of typhoon. During the developing El Niño year based on Niño 3.4 SST, the locations for the formation of the category 4+5 typhoon move to the eastward region.
The genesis potential function and the low-level cyclonic vorticity have an important role on the formation of strong tropical cyclones, which eventually develop as a typhoon class. In this study, the dynamic potential (DP) function (Gray, 1977) and EOF1 and EOF2 time series (RMM1 and RMM2) of real-time multivariate MJO (Wheeler and Hendon, 2004) are used to measure the genesis potential and the low-level cyclonic vorticity, respectively. To investigate the influence of the developing and decaying ENSO, we defined the Type Ⅰ case of the decaying El Niño that turnovers to La Niña, and the Type Ⅱ case of the recovering years to the neutral condition. During the decaying El Niño years as Type Ⅰ, the locations of the strong DP, RMM1 and RMM2 move to the westward more prominently to induce retard of the strong typhoon developing.

국문 초록 (Abstract)

본 연구에서는 El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) 발달과 소멸의 영향에 따른 태풍 강도와 태풍 발생지역의 상관성을 살펴보았다. 1950년부터 2006년까지의 장기간 자료를 이용하였으며, 먼저 엘니뇨 발달해와 정상해를 정의하였다. 엘니뇨 발달해 동안에 태풍 강도와 태풍 발생지역이 높은 상관성을 나타내고 이는 누적 저기압 에너지와 태풍 에너지 강도가 증가한 결과이다. Niño 3.4 지역의 해수면 온도를 기준으로 한 경우 엘니뇨 발달해에는, category 4+5에 해당하는 태풍의 발생지역이 동쪽으로 치우쳐 나타난다.
태풍 발생 잠재 함수와 하층의 저기압성 회전성은 태풍급에 해당하는 강도로 발달할 수있는 강한 열대성 저기압의 발생에 중요한 요소가 된다. 본 논문에서는 역학적 잠재력 (DP, Gray (1977))과 MJO의 EOF 첫 번째 모드와 두 번째 모드의 시계열에 해당하는 RMM1, RMM2 (Wheeler and Hendon, 2004)를 이용하여 태풍 발생의 잠재함수와 대기 하층의 저기압성 회전성을 측정하였다. ENSO 발달해와 소멸해의 영향을 찾아보기 위하여 엘니뇨가 소멸이 급격히 일어나 라니냐로 전환되는 Type Ⅰ과 정상해로 회복하는 Type Ⅱ를 정의하였다. Type Ⅰ의 엘니뇨 소멸기간 동안에는 DP 값과 RMM1, RMM2의 발달이 현저하게 서쪽으로 치우쳐 나타나며 강한 태풍의 발달을 지체시킴을 알 수 있었다.

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