필리핀 2018:권력 집중, 경기 위축, 자주 외교 = The Philippines 2018:Concentration of Political Power, Challenging Economy and Independent Foreign Policy

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

In 2018, Philippine politics, economy, and international relations can be summarized as ‘concentration of political power, challenging economy and independent foreign policy.’ In domestic politics, the concentration of political power centered on President Duterte was prominent. By claiming strong leadership, the Duterte government has brought many social changes that have not been achieved in any previous administrations. In terms of economy, the Philippines experienced a challenging year but still achieved a GDP growth rate of 6% among many adversary circumstances. The Duterte government adopted the state-led economic development strategy with the character of the ‘strong state’ that is the core of the East Asian development model. In foreign relations, through the practical and independent foreign policy the Duterte government has attracted enormous investment from China, and has achieved diplomatic results that set pride up to the United States. There is a view that democracy is retreating and authoritarianism is resurrected to the Philippines under the Duterte government. However, given the fact that democracy may difficult to be deepening in a country, which is suffering from a serious socioeconomic inequality, a different point of view could be possible. If the ‘strong state’ model of the Duterte government promotes economic development and successfully reforms the deeply rooted socioeconomic structure of inequality, it may act positively in the long term to consolidate democracy in the Philippines.

국문 초록 (Abstract)

2018년 필리핀 정치와 경제, 그리고 국제 관계는 ‘권력 집중, 경기 위축, 자주 외교’로 요약할 수 있다. 국내 정치에서는 두테르테 대통령을 중심으로 한 권력 집중 현상이 두드러졌다. 강한 리더십을 내세운 두테르테 정부는 민주화 이후 어떤 정권에서도 이루지 못한 많은 사회적 변화들을 가져왔다. 경제 정책에 있어서도 동아시아 발전 모델의 핵심인 ‘강한 국가’를 표방하면서 국가 주도의 발전 전략을 구사하여 국제 유가 상승과 미․중 무역 갈등 등 많은 악재에도 불구하고 6% 대의 GDP 성장률을 달성했다. 국제 관계에 있어서도 두테르테 정부는 실리 외교와 자주 외교를 통해 중국으로부터는 막대한 투자를 유치했으며, 미국에 대해서는 자존심을 세우는 외교적 성과를 달성했다. 최근 두테르테 정부 하의 필리핀에 대해 민주주의의 후퇴와 권위주의의 부활로 보는 시각도 있다. 그러나 또 다른 관점에서 보면, 두테르테 정부의 ‘강한 국가’ 모델이 경제 발전을 촉진하고, 고착화된 경제적 불평등 구조를 개선하는 방향으로 진행된다면, 장기적으로 필리핀 민주주의를 심화시키는 데 오히려 긍정적으로 작용할 수도 있을 것이다.

참고문헌 (Reference)

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20 The Inquirer, "PH, China to set up panel for joint exploration deal"

21 The Philippine Star, "PAF buying US Black Hawks, not Russian helicopters"

22 The Inquirer, "No classes, gov’t work in Manila on Nov. 20 due to China’s Xi Jinping visit"

23 The Philippine Star, "Nearly 500,000 ‘endo’ workers regularized in 2018"

24 Rappler, "More soldiers key to stopping armed groups in Samar ? military officer"

25 The Philippine Star, "Mindanao martial law extension contrary to Constitution"

26 The Inquirer, "Malacanang welcomes ‘movement’ of Balangiga Bells back to PH"

27 The Philippine Star, "ICC continues initial review of Duterte, drug war despite Philippine withdrawal"

28 SWS(Social Weather Station), "Fourth Quarter 2018 Social Weather Survey: Pres. Duterte's Net Satisfaction rating rises to “Very Good” +60"

29 The Philippine Star, "FULL TEXT: Joint statement of the Philippines and China"

30 The Inquirer, "Elite leading resistance to federalism – Puno"

31 The Philippine Star, "Duterte: Philippines will not buy weapons from US"

32 The Inquirer, "Duterte: I’m really a dictator"

33 The Philippine Star, "Duterte-media’s tense relations worsened in 2018"

34 The Inquirer, "Duterte ‘always welcome’ to visit US – official"

35 Foreign Policy, "Duterte vs. God"

36 The Philippine Star, "Duterte signs law on national ID system"

37 The Inquirer, "Duterte signs executive order on ‘endo’"

38 Rappler, "Duterte revokes Trillanes' amnesty ‘effective immediately’"

39 The Philippine Star, "Duterte places Customs under military control"

40 ABS-CBN News, "Communists plotting to topple Duterte by October, claims AFP"

41 Agence France Presse, "China, ASEAN to hold maritime drill to ease tensions"

42 Manila Bulletin, "CA decision upholding revocation of Rappler’s registration not about press freedom"

43 ABS-CBN News, "Analyst says Duterte has growing dictatorial tendency; Palace says ‘nonsense’"

44 The Inquirer, "ADB sees Philippine inflation at 10-year high of 5.3% in 2018"

45 Rappler, "A Staple Problem? History of rice crisis in the Philippines"