식ㆍ의약 위해 감시체계(K-RISS)의 우선순위 평가를 위한 시계열 구조변화 기반 기준선 설정 모델 개발|RISS 상세보기

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Background: The Korea Risk Information Surveillance System (K-RISS) was developed to enable the early detection of food and drug safety-related issues. Its goal is to deliver real-time risk indicators generated from ongoing food and drug risk monitoring. However, the existing K-RISS system suffers under several limitations.
Objectives: This study aims to augment K-RISS with more detailed indicators and establish a severity standard that takes into account structural changes in the daily time series of K-RISS values.
Methods: First, a Delphi survey was conducted to derive the required weights. Second, a control chart, commonly used in statistical process controls, was utilized to detect outliers and establish caution, attention, and serious levels for K-RISS values. Furthermore, Bai and Perron’s method was employed to determine structural changes in K-RISS time series.
Results: The study incorporated ‘closeness to life’ and ‘sustainability’ indicators into K-RISS. It obtained the necessary weights through a survey of experts for integrating variables, combining indicators by data source, and aggregating sub K-RISS values. We defined caution, attention, and serious levels for both average and maximum values of daily K-RISS. Furthermore, when structural changes were detected, leading to significant variations in daily K-RISS values according to different periods, the study systematically verified these changes and derived respective severity levels for each period.
Conclusions: This study enhances the existing K-RISS system and introduces more advanced indicators.
K-RISS is now more comprehensively equipped to serve as a risk warning index. The study has paved the way for an objective determination of whether the food safety risk index surpasses predefined thresholds through the application of severity levels.

번역하기

참고문헌 (Reference)

1 Andrews DWK, "Tests for parameter instability and structural change with unknown change point" 61 (61): 821-856, 1993

2 김영복 ; 홍정식 ; 이창훈, "Statistical design of Shewhart control chart with runs rules" 36 (36): 34-44, 2008

3 Kim JG, "Research results and trends analysis for EWMA control chart of manufacturing processes" 581-591, 2013

4 Andrews DWK, "Optimal tests when a nuisance parameter is present only under the alternative" 62 (62): 1383-1414, 1994

5 Liu J, "On segmented multivariate regression" 7 (7): 497-525, 1997

6 Bank of Korea, "News Sentiment Index (NSI) released as experimental statistic"

7 Montgomery DC., "Introduction to statistical quality control" Wiley 2013

8 Bai J, "Estimating and testing linear models with multiple structural changes" 66 (66): 47-78, 1998

9 U.S.-Mexico Border Field Office of the Pan American Health Organization, "Environmental health indicators workshop U.S. - Mexico Border; 2002 Aug 28-30; Mc Allen, U.S"

10 European Health Information Gateway, "Environment and Health Information System (ENHIS)"