인구 노령화가 산업구조에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구 : -중국 광서자치구 중심으로 = An Empirical Study on the Influence of Population Aging on the Industrial Structure

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Under the trend of global aging, Guangxi entered an aging society in 1996. Multiple factors, such as population age structure, human capital and, scale play a decisive role in promoting the economic development of a region. As we all know, China's regional economic development is uneven, and the economic gap between the east and the west is particularly obvious. Guangdong is adjacent to Guangxi, but Guangdong is located in the east of China, and its economy is obviously more developed, while Guangxi is located in the western part of China, and its economic development lags behind. According to statistics, the GDP of Guangdong (Eastern) will be 11 trillion yuan by the end of 2020, while that of Guangxi (Western) is only 2 trillion yuan. In stark contrast to Guangxi's backward economic development, the rate of aging is staggering. By 2020, the population aged 60 and above in Guangxi accounted for 16.69% of the total population, of which the elderly aged over 65 accounted for 12.2% of the total population, and the old-aged dependency ratio was 19.01%, indicating that the economic development of Guangxi lags behind and the degree of aging is deep. With the increasing degree of aging, the population structure of Guangxi has changed, which is bound to have an impact on the industrial structure. Accordingly, this paper aims to analyze the impact of aging on the changes of industrial structure in Guangxi, which will provide a basis for Guangxi to actively deal with the problem of population aging, provide theoretical support for the adjustment and upgrading of industrial structure in Guangxi, promote the high-quality economic development of Guangxi, contribute to the economic development of western China, contribute to China's coordinated regional economic development, and provide reference for other ethnic minority areas to deal with the aging problem.
This paper takes the data of Guangxi from 1999 to 2020 as the research sample and takes the aging of Guangxi population and the three industries and industrial structure of Guangxi as the research object. Firstly, by searching a large number of relevant literature and materials, combing the preliminary research related to the research objects, and discussing the relevant theoretical knowledge, to lay the theoretical foundation for the research. Secondly, it analyzes the current situation of population aging and industrial structure in Guangxi, and studies the relationship between population aging and three industries in Guangxi by grey relational analysis. Thirdly, through the method of empirical analysis, stata15.0 software was used to analyze the impact of population aging in Guangxi on the development of the three industries by the construction of regression model,and then constructs multivariable VECM models to study the impact of population aging on the rationalization and upgrading of industrial structure in Guangxi. Finally, the research results are that the aging in Guangxi hinders the development of the primary and secondary industries and promotes the tertiary industry; hinders the rationalization of industrial structure in the short term; it is unfavorable to the upgrading of the industrial structure. According to the above research results, relevant suggestions are put forward to provide reference for upgrading industrial structure and promoting economic development in Guangxi.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• Chapter 1 Introduction 1
• 1.1 Research Background 1
• 1.2 Research Objective 4
• 1.3 Research Methods and Framework 6
• 1.3.1 Research Methods 6
• 1.3.2 Research Framework 11
• Chapter 2 Literature Review 12
• 2.1 Advance Research 12
• 2.2 Concepts, Metrics and Theory of Population Aging 17
• 2.2.1 Basic Concepts 17
• 2.2.2 Metrics 18
• 2.2.3 Demographic Transition Theory 18
• 2.3 Concepts, Influencing Factors and Theory of Industrial Structure 20
• 2.3.1 Basic Concepts 20
• 2.3.2 Influence Factors 21
• 2.3.3 Petty-Clark Theory 25
• 2.4 Influence Mechanism 26
• 2.4.1 Supply Side 27
• 2.4.2 Demand Side 29
• Chapter 3 Population Aging Status and Industrial Structure Development Status in Guangxi 32
• 3.1 Development Status of Population Aging 32
• 3.1.1 Development Status 33
• 3.1.2 Characteristics 36
• 3.1.3 Comparison between China and Developed Countries 45
• 3.2 Development Status of Industrial Structure 51
• 3.2.1 Development Status 51
• 3.2.2 Development History 55
• 3.2.3 Comparison with Some Provinces and Cities 63
• 3.3 Grey Relation Analysis(GRA) 69
• 3.3.1 Introduction to GRA Method 69
• 3.3.2 Operation Process of GRA Method 70
• 3.3.3 Grey relational analysis results 73
• Chapter 4 Analysis and Results 74
• 4.1 Regression Model of Aging and Three Industries 74
• 4.1.1 Determine the Variables 74
• 4.1.2 Data Description 75
• 4.1.3 Construction of Regression Model 76
• 4.1.4 Analysis of Model Results 79
• 4.2 Empirical Study on the Impact of Aging on Industrial Structure 88
• 4.2.1 Model Setting 89
• 4.2.2 Empirical Study on Rationalization of Industrial Structure 99
• 4.2.3 Empirical Study on Upgrading of Industrial Structure 120
• Chapter 5 Conclusion 137
• 5.1 Main Findings 137
• 5.2 Implications 146
• 5.2.1 Theoretical Implications 146
• 5.2.2 Practical Implications 147
• 5.3 Limitations and Future Research 160
• References 162
• 국문초록 167