EMU Membership and Business Cycle Phases in Europe : Markov-Switching VAR Analysis

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Most empirical applications of the OCA approach based on asymmetric shocks have failed to account for the cradibility aspects that play an important role in deciding to join the EMU from the EMS or the EMS-BIS. In this paper, we thackle this peoblem by relying on a regime switching approach that characterizes the position of each economy in its business cycle. Then, using desynchronisation indices based on a non parametric approach, we measure the amplitude and the duration of divergence in the business cycles in order to assess the potential stabilization cost induced by the European economic and monetary union.