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      KCI등재 SSCI SCOPUS

      The Perpetuated Hostility in the Inter-Korean Rivalry: A Theory of Multilevel Veto Players and the Persistence of South-North Korean Rivalry, 1954-2007

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      https://www.riss.kr/link?id=A105428350

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      다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

      The paper begins with the simple questions of why and how South-North Korean rivalry or inter-Korean rivalry has persisted for decades. To answer these questions, I develop a theory of multilevel veto players and test the hypotheses drawn from the theory for the case of the hostile relations between South and North Korea from 1954 to 2007. Central to the theory is that maintenance of the rivalry is the result of rival leaders’ efforts to maximize either the national interests of their country or their own personal interest—staying in power—subject both to the external constraint of great power intervention and to the internal constraint of challenges by hardline veto groups. By applying this theory to the case of the inter-Korean rivalry from 1954-2007, the paper finds that the leaders of South and North Korea have maintained their hostile relations over the past five decades because they believe that maintaining the relations will help them either maximize their nation’s security interest or increase their chances of remaining in power, subject to the constraints. Specifically, the constraints have prevented the rival leaders from resolving the issues in dispute on the battlefield or at a negotiation table, making the inter-Korean rivalry persist across time. The findings offer a contribution to an enhanced understanding of the maintenance process in international rivalries, most notably the inter-Korean rivalry.
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      The paper begins with the simple questions of why and how South-North Korean rivalry or inter-Korean rivalry has persisted for decades. To answer these questions, I develop a theory of multilevel veto players and test the hypotheses drawn from the the...

      The paper begins with the simple questions of why and how South-North Korean rivalry or inter-Korean rivalry has persisted for decades. To answer these questions, I develop a theory of multilevel veto players and test the hypotheses drawn from the theory for the case of the hostile relations between South and North Korea from 1954 to 2007. Central to the theory is that maintenance of the rivalry is the result of rival leaders’ efforts to maximize either the national interests of their country or their own personal interest—staying in power—subject both to the external constraint of great power intervention and to the internal constraint of challenges by hardline veto groups. By applying this theory to the case of the inter-Korean rivalry from 1954-2007, the paper finds that the leaders of South and North Korea have maintained their hostile relations over the past five decades because they believe that maintaining the relations will help them either maximize their nation’s security interest or increase their chances of remaining in power, subject to the constraints. Specifically, the constraints have prevented the rival leaders from resolving the issues in dispute on the battlefield or at a negotiation table, making the inter-Korean rivalry persist across time. The findings offer a contribution to an enhanced understanding of the maintenance process in international rivalries, most notably the inter-Korean rivalry.

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      참고문헌 (Reference)

      1 Colaresi, Michael P., "When Doves Cry: International Rivalry, Unreciprocated Cooperation; Leadership Turnover" 48 (48): 555-570, 2004

      2 Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce, "War and Reason" Yale University Press 1994

      3 Diehl, Paul, "War and Peace in International Rivalry" University of Michigan Press 2000

      4 Tsebelis, George, "Veto Players: How Political Institutions War" Princeton University Press 2002

      5 Armstrong, Charles, "Tyranny of the Weak: North Korea and the World, 1950-1992" Cornell University Press 2013

      6 Oberdorfer, Don., "Two Koreas" Basic Books 1997

      7 Vasquez, John A., "The War Puzzle" Cambridge University Press 1993

      8 Moon, Chung-In., "The Sunshine Policy: In Defense of Engagement as a Path to Peace in Korea" Yonsei University Press 2012

      9 Kwak, Tae Yang., "The Nixon Doctrine and the Yusin Reforms: American Foreign Policy, the Vietnam War, and the Rise of Authoritarianism in Korea, 1968-1973" 12 (12): 33-57, 2003

      10 Klein, James P., "The New Rivalry Dataset:Procedure and Patterns" 43 (43): 331-348, 2006

      1 Colaresi, Michael P., "When Doves Cry: International Rivalry, Unreciprocated Cooperation; Leadership Turnover" 48 (48): 555-570, 2004

      2 Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce, "War and Reason" Yale University Press 1994

      3 Diehl, Paul, "War and Peace in International Rivalry" University of Michigan Press 2000

      4 Tsebelis, George, "Veto Players: How Political Institutions War" Princeton University Press 2002

      5 Armstrong, Charles, "Tyranny of the Weak: North Korea and the World, 1950-1992" Cornell University Press 2013

      6 Oberdorfer, Don., "Two Koreas" Basic Books 1997

      7 Vasquez, John A., "The War Puzzle" Cambridge University Press 1993

      8 Moon, Chung-In., "The Sunshine Policy: In Defense of Engagement as a Path to Peace in Korea" Yonsei University Press 2012

      9 Kwak, Tae Yang., "The Nixon Doctrine and the Yusin Reforms: American Foreign Policy, the Vietnam War, and the Rise of Authoritarianism in Korea, 1968-1973" 12 (12): 33-57, 2003

      10 Klein, James P., "The New Rivalry Dataset:Procedure and Patterns" 43 (43): 331-348, 2006

      11 Goetz, Gary, "The Initiation and Termination of Enduring Rivalries: The Impact of Political Shocks" 39 (39): 30-53, 1995

      12 Kapur, Ashok, "The India-Pakistan Conflict: An Enduring Rivalry" Cambridge University Press 131-155, 2005

      13 Cha, Victor, "The Impossible State: North Korea Past and Future" HarperCollins 2012

      14 Constas, Dimitri, "The Greek-Turkish Conflict in the 1990s: Domestic and External Influences" St. Martin Press 1991

      15 Goetz, Gary, "The Empirical Importance of Enduring Rivalries" 18 (18): 151-163, 1992

      16 Yong-SupHan, "THE SUNSHINE POLICY AND SECURITY ON THE KOREAN PENINSULA: A CRITICAL ASSESSMENT AND PROSPECTS" 극동문제연구소 26 (26): 37-69, 2002

      17 Huth, Paul K., "Standing Your Ground: Territorial Disputes and International Conflict" The University of Michigan Press 1998

      18 Cha, Victor, "Nuclear North Korea: A Debates on Engagement Strategies" Columbia University Press 2005

      19 Van Dyke, Jon M, "North/South Korea Boundary Dispute in the Yellow (West) Sea" 27 : 143-158, 2003

      20 Kihl, Young Whan, "North Korea: The Politics of Regime Survival" M. E. Sharpe 2006

      21 Kim, Ilpyong, "North Korea: The Politics of Regime Survival" M. E. Sharpe 59-74, 2006

      22 Nanto, Dick K., "North Korea: Chronology of Provocations, 1950-2003" 1-26, 2003

      23 Oh, Kongdan, "North Korea in 2009: The Song Remains the Same" 50 (50): 89-96, 2010

      24 Oh, Kongdan, "North Korea between Collapse and Reform" 39 (39): 287-309, 1999

      25 Koh, B. C., "North Korea 1976: Under Stress" 17 (17): 61-70, 1977

      26 Goertz, Gary, "Maintaining Processes in International Rivalries" 49 (49): 742-769, 2005

      27 Cumings, Bruce, "Korea’s Place in the Sun: A Modern History" W. W. Norton & Company 2005

      28 Harrison, Selig S., "Korean Endgame: A Strategy for Reunification and U.S. Disengagement" Princeton University Press 2002

      29 Gerring, John, "Is There a (Variable) Crucial-Case Method?" 40 (40): 231-253, 2007

      30 Kang, David., "International Relations Theory and the Second Korean War" 47 (47): 301-324, 2003

      31 Bennett, D. Scott., "Integrating and Testing Models of Rivalry Duration" 42 (42): 1200-1232, 1998

      32 Thompson, William R., "Identifying Rivals and Rivalries in World Politics" 45 (45): 557-586, 2001

      33 Eckstein, Harry K, "Handbook of Political Science: Scope and Theory" Addison-Wesley Educational Publishers Inc 79-138, 1975

      34 Bahcheli, Tozun, "Greek-Turkish Relations since 1955, Westview Special Studies in International Relations." 1990

      35 유재광, "Explaining the Maintenance Process of International Rivalries: A Modified Two-Level Game Approach to the Maintenance of the 2nd Greco-Turkish Rivalry, 1958-2001" 한국국제정치학회 14 (14): 131-159, 2016

      36 Huth, Paul K, "Democratic Political Accountability and the Escalation and the Settlement of International Disputes" 46 (46): 754-790, 2002

      37 McGinnis, Michael D., "Compound Dilemmas: Democracy, Collective Action and Superpower Rivalry" The University of Michigan Press 2001

      38 Levy, Jack, "Case Studies: Types, Designs, and Logics of Inference" 25 (25): 1-18, 2008

      39 George, Alexander L., "Case Studies and Theory Development in the Social Science" MIT Press 2004

      40 Yoon, Taeyoung., "Between Peace and War: South Korea’s Crisis Management Strategies toward North Korea" 15 (15): 3-22, 2003

      41 Kim, Samuel S., "Asian Rivalries" Stanford University Press 2011

      42 Cassidy, Richard P, "Arms Transfer and Security Assistance to the Korean Peninsula, 1945-1980: Impact and Implications" Monterey Naval Postgraduate School 1980

      43 Thompson William R., "Alliances, Arms Buildups and Recurrent Conflict: Testing a Steps-to-War Model" 67 (67): 345-364, 2005

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      학술지 인용정보

      학술지 인용정보
      기준연도 WOS-KCI 통합IF(2년) KCIF(2년) KCIF(3년)
      2016 0.24 0.18 0.22
      KCIF(4년) KCIF(5년) 중심성지수(3년) 즉시성지수
      0.22 0.27 0.448 0
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