Evaluation of Real‐Time Convection‐Permitting Precipitation Forecasts in China During the 2013–2014 Summer Season

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Forecasts at a 4 km convection‐permitting resolution over China during the summer season have been produced with the Weather Research and Forecasting model at Nanjing University since 2013. Precipitation forecasts from 2013 to 2014 are evaluated with dense rain gauge observations and compared with operational global model forecasts. Overall, the 4 km forecasts show very good agreement with observations over most parts of China, outperforming global forecasts in terms of spatial distribution, intensity, and diurnal variation. Quantitative evaluations with the Gilbert skill score further confirm the better performance of the 4 km forecasts over global forecasts for heavy precipitation, especially for the thresholds of 100 and 150 mm d−1. Besides bulk characteristics, the representations of some unique features of summer precipitation in China under the influence of the East Asian summer monsoon are further evaluated. These include the northward progression and southward retreat of the main rainband through the summer season, the diurnal variations of precipitation, and the meridional and zonal propagation of precipitation episodes associated with background synoptic flow and the embedded mesoscale convective systems. The 4 km forecast is able to faithfully reproduce most of the features while overprediction of afternoon convection near the southern China coast is found to be a main deficiency that requires further investigations.


Precipitation forecasts are produced at a 4 km convection‐permitting resolution over China in summer of 2013–2014
The 4 km forecast outperforms global forecasts in terms of spatial distribution, intensity, timing, and duration of heavy precipitation
The unique intraseasonal movement, diurnal cycles, and propagation of summer precipitation in China are also well forecast